India is preparing to increase purchases of Russian crude in September, signalling that New Delhi will continue defying US punitive tariffs aimed at curbing the trade.
Indian refiners are expected to raise imports of Russian crude by 10–20 percent next month compared with August levels—equivalent to an additional 1,50,000–3,00,000 barrels per day. India is now Russia's most important oil customer since Western sanctions reshaped global energy flows.
India emerged as the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, securing cheaper barrels that now account for around 40 percent of its oil needs. In the first 20 days of August, India imported about 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian oil.
The Trump administration has sharply criticised India for what it calls “profiteering” from discounted Russian supplies. On Wednesday, Washington increased tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent, a move that New Delhi says it will attempt to resolve through talks even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi pursues wider diplomatic engagement, including with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Indian officials, meanwhile, accuse Western nations of double standards, pointing out that the EU and US continue to import Russian goods worth billions of dollars despite the sanctions regime.
Given India’s increasing domestic refinery runs amid discounted Russian barrels, we don’t see India scuppering its Russian imports in meaningful volumes,” BNP Paribas said in a note.
Discounts on Russian Urals crude are expected to widen in September to $2–$3 per barrel below dated Brent, traders said, compared with just $1.50 in August—the narrowest since 2022. The fresh supply comes as Russia faces unplanned refinery outages and Ukrainian attacks that have disrupted as much as 17 percent of its refining capacity, freeing up more crude for export.
Analysts say India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil has displaced more expensive OPEC barrels in recent years. Although OPEC’s share in India’s imports edged up in 2024 after eight years of decline, Russia remains the dominant supplier.
Kpler’s analyst Sumit Ritolia noted: “Unless India issues a clear policy directive or trade economics shift significantly, Russian crude will likely remain a core part of its supply mix.”
Brokerage CLSA also forecast little chance of New Delhi halting Russian imports unless a coordinated global ban is imposed. It warned that if India were forced to cut purchases, global supply could shrink by around one million barrels per day and push oil prices towards $100 a barrel in the short term.
The full effect of sanctions and tariffs may only be visible in shipments arriving in October, traders said, as cargoes for that period begin trading in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the EU has tightened its oil price cap to $47.60 a barrel from September 2—about 15 percent below the market price for Russian crude—further complicating Moscow’s sales and limiting access to Western shipping and insurance services for cargoes sold above the cap.
Without Indian demand, Russia would struggle to sustain current export levels, cutting into the oil revenues that underpin its budget and war effort in Ukraine.
