Canada, which once used to enchant each year tens of thousands of Punjabi youths who wanted to make it big in life, is no longer a dream land for them. For, Canada has rolled back its red-carpet--its immigration policies have become very strict; there are not many odd jobs, which were the livelihoods of lakhs of Indian students, are gone; and, Canada-India relations are not that good.
Early last year, Canada's liberal immigration laws started changing. The country announced major changes in the way it accepted international students, immigrants, and visitors.
In addition, the country placed restrictions on spousal visas: now, only Master's and PhD students can bring their partners along. Another change Canada made is to grant work permits only to students obtaining technical diplomas, in fields like welding or diesel mechanics, for instance.
It will be much harder for aspiring immigrants without technical skills to get jobs, work permits and become permanent residents. A bachelor's degree and work experience are essential to finding a good, white-collar job, his brother tells Singh.
"I've decided to drop my plan to go to Canada for my undergraduate studies and to stay back there," a young man said. He has now enrolled in a bachelor's degree programme, studying Commerce at Baba Farid University in Faridkot, Punjab.
Like him, thousands have decided not to go abroad and to stay back in Punjab and study in the colleges in the state.
The result? A domino effect on the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) and immigration economy in Punjab--it's now struggling to stay afloat.
Across India, Punjabi youths are known for their desire to migrate abroad, especially to Canada. Of the various paths of migration, 40% of Punjabis pick the study visa route, according to a 2023 study conducted by Punjab Agricultural University, making it a particularly popular pathway.
To enrol in an educational programme in Canada, you need to prove your proficiency in English by taking the IELTS exam. In Punjab, a whole economy has formed to tutor students and help them with the visa application process.
If you go to any major town in the state, you will see a street full of IELTS centres, locally known as the IELTS vaali galli. Shops with names like 'Kaka Immigration Centre' and 'Fateh Consultancy' assure a visa and permanent residency to prospective customers.
It's not just the Indian IELTS and immigration industry that this Canadian obsession sustains. The Punjab Agricultural University study also found that, on average, the study visa route costs about 18-25 lakh per person. In total, Indian international students contribute 68,000 crore to Canada each year, per a report by Khalsa Vox, a media portal on Punjab's politics and culture.
But things started diving in 2024. Geopolitical relations between Canada and India soured. In September 2024, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of killing Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
India, on the other hand, blamed Canada for turning a blind eye to the country's residents allegedly funding terror acts in India. A diplomatic standoff ensued. A month later, Canada expelled Sanjay Kumar Verma, the Indian high commissioner to Canada, along with five other diplomats. India retaliated with six expulsions of its own.
Though India and Canada's fight likely would not affect Canadian immigration policy, it could make Indians feel less welcome in Canada, said Stephen Green, a top immigration lawyer based in Toronto, Canada. He added that in his 40-yearcareer, he's seen many ups and downs in the immigration landscape but that this time, the Canadian "government has overreacted." Green blames the country's move on the general anti-immigrant "political environment"--not just in Canada but also in the Global North.
After decades of pro-globalisation and pro-immigration policies in countries like the US, Italy, Germany and Canada, there appears to be a rightward shift, with more nationalist and nativist policies.
Canada and India's relationship, as well as Canadian immigration policies, matter to Indians. Most new permanent residents (PR) in Canada come from India.
Most international students in Canada are also from India--specifically, India sends five times more students (3,84,965) to Canada than China (75,615), which is at number two, according to Project Atlas, a consultancy that studies student mobility.
Among Indian states, Canada's policies have an outsized impact on Punjab, since a majority of Indian international students in Canada come from Punjab, said Neil Amber Judge, who researched the labour market experiences of Indian international students in Canada at Wilfred Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario.
And it's not just rich kids who go to Canada; Punjabi youth of all backgrounds, from the wealthy to the poor, apply for study visas. With little to no financial support from home, poor and middle-class young people, like Dilveer's siblings, prefer to enrol in relatively short diploma programmes over more expensive degree-granting ones. For instance, Dilveer Singh's brother earned a diploma in accounting, and his sister is in the process of getting one in business and finance.
For such students, education is but an excuse. Their real goal is to get a work permit, a permanent residency and later, Canadian citizenship.
By restricting the number of work permits, Canada, in turn, has also reduced the likelihood of students becoming citizens in the country. Young Punjabi students, therefore, are becoming much less inclined to study in Canada. That's had a huge impact on Punjab's IELTS and immigration economy, with many centres shutting down or losing business in the past year.
According to the Association of Consultants for Overseas Studies, an industry body, 1.4-1.5 million students took the IELTS exam in 2023; the number dropped drastically to between 2,00,000 and 300,000 in 2024.
A year ago, there were about 11,000 registered IELTS centres in Punjab. Only 6,000 of them survive today.
In Muktsar, most IELTS centres and immigration consultancies are concentrated in the 30-foot galli. In the past year, many have closed shop. Instead of flashy signs promising you an idealised life in the West, 'TO-LET' signs, signalling closed centres, now line the galli.
Where Mandeep Singh's Learning Highway used to teach about 40 students each year, now that number is down to 10. Prag Garg's consultancy also saw a 70-80% loss of business. "Earlier, we would work with 10 students in this season, now there's only one or two," said Garg.
The price of land in the area has fallen sharply from ₹8 lakh per foot, it's now 5 lakh said Prag Garg, owner of Gray Jay Education and Immigration Services.
Sanjeev Dureja, aka Goldy, a Muktsarbased real estate agent and property dealer confirmed that figure. "And, despite that fall, it's virtually impossible to find a buyer for the area," Dureja said.
Even in the state's capital, Chandigarh, IELTS centres and immigration consultancies are struggling. "Our business has fallen by 70%," said Seema Chauhan, director of the Chandigarh-based International IELTS Centre. Chauhan started her centre in 2018 when the business was `flourishing.' Even when the Covid pandemic hit, they were able to `manage everything.' But the recent changes have been really shocking, said Chauhan.
Previously, the IELTS industry was an important job creator, she said, adding that these centres would hire counsellors and teachers all the time. But, now, even though she receives dozens of resumés and calls from educated people every second day, including from people with PhDs, she has no jobs to offer.
Since 2017, 134 IELTS centres registered themselves in Muktsar, a Labour Department official said. Though the city doesn't record data of centre closures, a real estate agent said "70% (of 134) have likely lost business and closed."
But, Canada loss appears to be Punjab's gain. Several Punjabi students enrolled themselves in local colleges this year, rather than studying for the IELTS exam right after their 12th grade. The state's universities saw a steep increase in the number of admissions.
"You know, in the past five years we had struggled to get Punjabi students and hence used to go out and invite students from Bihar, Kerala and Kashmir. But this time we got so many applications from Punjabi students, that we didn't have to look outside the state," said Jasvir Kaur, director-principal of Adesh College of Nursing and Medical Sciences, Muktsar.
Meanwhile, people who support the migration ecosystem believe that the change in aspiration is a short-term blip. They hope Canda's horizon would open up again.
(By arrangement with livemint.com)
