Six years ago, India entered an unprecedented phase as the Covid outbreak pushed the country into a nationwide lockdown. Now, businesses are confronting another major crisis—the wart in West Asia.
Volatility is no longer an exception; it is the new normal.
In this environment, only those businesses that can adapt quickly, move cautiously during crises and accelerate at the first sign of opportunity will remain relevant. The key question for entrepreneurs is no longer about survival, but about how to grow regardless of what unfolds.
Crises may erupt in a moment, but their after-effects tend to linger. Take the ongoing West Asian conflict. India was gradually stabilising inflation, but the situation has now turned uncertain. Rising crude oil prices are expected to push inflation higher. According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, higher oil prices will fuel inflationary pressures, while Goldman Sachs estimates that every $10 increase in crude could raise inflation by 35–40 basis points.
Growth expectations for FY2026 are now unlikely to be fully met. The impact is already widespread — from street vendors to exporters supplying vegetables to Gulf markets. The broader economy, especially micro, small and medium enterprises, is facing deep and long-lasting consequences.
Traditional business thinking emphasised discipline, steady expansion and adherence to long-term plans. That approach is no longer enough.
Today’s successful businesses are rethinking their mindset:
Assume disruptions can occur anytime
Plan for multiple scenarios instead of relying only on current conditions
Build highly flexible operations that can respond instantly
Many of today’s crises are unprecedented, leaving business leaders without any ready reference or “instruction manual”.
As Robert Kiyosaki highlights, the first step in overcoming a crisis is to acknowledge its scale and understand its implications. He has warned that disruptions such as a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger global ripple effects—including fertiliser shortages and a surge in food prices.
If fertiliser costs rise sharply, farmers across India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Brazil and parts of Africa could face higher input costs and lower yields. This, in turn, could push global food prices higher, with the poorest populations being hit first.
The lesson is clear: every crisis creates not just visible disruptions, but deeper, indirect consequences.
“Cut the fat, not the muscle,” says Shiv Shivakumar, for PepsiCo India head.
The focus, he argues, should be on efficiency — not indiscriminate cost-cutting. In a challenging environment, businesses must aim to operate lean without weakening their core strengths.
Stay sharply focused on the customer; avoid cutting quality or shrinking product value
Renegotiate contracts in line with changing conditions and strengthen relationships with key clients and suppliers
Review all expenses — not every cost is bad, but wasteful spending must go
Avoid excessive borrowing and aim to reduce costs by up to 20 percent without cutting jobs
Create clear plans for the next one, three and 12 months, and communicate them transparently to employees
Preserve cash and be upfront with employees if incentives cannot be paid immediately
Build strong industry networks to anticipate risks early and stay informed
This is a new era defined by uncertainty. Turning away from it or fearing it will not help. Businesses must instead prepare themselves to navigate turbulent waters — with confidence and clarity — and be ready to seize opportunities when they arise.
