Commodity markets are expected to remain sensitive and volatile this week, with direction largely driven by US economic data, global growth signals, and energy inventory trends.
Weak US labour data — including a decline of 92,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls and a rise in unemployment to 4.4 percent — could pressure the dollar and lend support to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. At the same time, US manufacturing PMI and inflation-related indicators will shape expectations on economic strength and cost pressures, influencing both metals and energy markets.
China’s PMI remaining below 50 signals contraction, which may cap gains in industrial commodities and crude oil due to softer demand expectations. Mixed PMI readings across the US and Europe further point to uneven global growth.
In the energy segment, crude oil inventories and refinery data from the US will be closely tracked, while natural gas prices will react to storage trends. Commentary from US Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, will also be a key trigger for commodity price direction.
Gold witnessed high volatility during the past week, moving within a wide range before ending almost flat.
Weekly high: $4,602.63
Weekly low: $4,098.74
Close: $4,493.12
The price action indicates indecision following a recent sharp decline, with both buyers and sellers active.
Technically, gold is attempting to stabilise near key levels:
Support: $4,275; deeper support at $3,890
Resistance: $5,040; next at $5,600
Holding above $4,275 could support a gradual recovery. A breakout above $5,040 may revive bullish momentum, while failure to hold support could trigger further downside.
Silver showed signs of recovery after recent weakness, posting modest gains for the week.
Weekly high: $74.55
Weekly low: $61.02
Close: $69.74 (up 2.72 percent)
The metal is showing early signs of base formation as buyers re-enter at lower levels.
Support: $61.15; lower support at $45.50
Resistance: $80.75; next at $96.75
Sustaining above $61.15 could support further recovery, while a move above $80.75 may strengthen sentiment. Failure to hold support could keep the trend range-bound with a negative bias.
Brent crude remained volatile, witnessing profit booking after a strong rally.
Weekly high: $114.43
Weekly low: $93.45
Close: $106.28 (down 2.99 percent)
The market appears to be entering a short-term corrective phase.
Support: $99.50; next at $81.15
Resistance: $119.45; next at $137.95
Holding above $99.50 will be crucial to maintain a constructive outlook. A move above $119.45 could revive bullish momentum, while weakness below support may lead to deeper correction.
Natural gas traded in a narrow range, reflecting lack of clear direction.
Weekly high: $3.1394
Weekly low: $2.8398
Close: $3.0735
The market remains in a consolidation phase.
Support: $2.71; lower support at $2.07
Resistance: $3.50; next at $4.11
A sustained move above $3.50 could trigger fresh upside, while a break below $2.71 may tilt the trend lower.
US economic data and Fed commentary
Global PMI trends
Crude oil inventory data
Natural gas storage levels
Commodity markets are likely to remain highly reactive to these triggers in the coming days.
Note: Research for this article was provided by MyEquityLab, a SEBI-registered research analyst (Registration No.: INH000023843).
