Indian equities are expected to open higher on Monday, supported by falling crude oil prices, a recovery in US stock futures and renewed buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran in Qatar have also raised hopes of an easing of geopolitical tensions.
Foreign investors turning net buyers last week, record automobile sales in October, stronger GST collections and rising UPI transactions are among the factors likely to support market sentiment. However, Asian markets were trading mixed on Monday morning.
GIFT Nifty, which closed at 23,242.50 on Friday night, slipped to 23,212 in early trading on Monday before recovering above 23,300, indicating a potentially strong opening for Indian equities.
India's passenger vehicle market recorded its strongest monthly performance in October, driven by festive demand. Monthly sales crossed five lakh units for the first time, rising 13.6% to 5.4 lakh vehicles.
Electric vehicle sales reportedly increased 50%. Maruti Suzuki recorded a 20.5% increase in domestic sales to 2.12 lakh vehicles. Tata Motors reported a 21% rise to 73,894 units, while Mahindra's sales grew 2% to 73,338 vehicles.
The strong automobile sales figures could provide support to auto stocks, although broader market sentiment remains cautious.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) made net purchases of around ₹6,300 crore in Indian equities last week. However, they remained net sellers for October, withdrawing ₹34,843 crore.
Their cumulative net outflows for 2026 have consequently reached ₹2.95 lakh crore.
The return of foreign buying after seven consecutive weeks of substantial selling has raised hopes of a reversal in investment trends. However, market participants remain cautious about treating the development as a sustained change.
Foreign investors made significant purchases on four trading days last week, helping benchmark indices recover losses recorded in the preceding week. Their investment activity this week will be crucial in determining the market's direction.
India's gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 22.9% year-on-year to ₹2.31 lakh crore in October, marking the strongest growth in four years.
Collections had increased 14.7% in September. October also marked the fourth consecutive month in which GST revenue exceeded ₹2 lakh crore.
The surge was largely driven by a 42.2% increase in GST collected on imports. Revenue from domestic transactions grew at a slower pace of 15.8%. During April-October, gross GST collections increased 13.2%, while net collections rose 12.6%.
The figures indicate continued growth in tax revenues, although the higher contribution from imports suggests that domestic demand was not the only driver.
The cyberattack on cryptocurrency exchange Binance triggered a sharp decline in digital asset valuations, wiping approximately $100 billion off the global cryptocurrency market. Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation dropped from $2.7 trillion to $2.6 trillion.
North Korean hackers are suspected of carrying out the attack, in which approximately $6.3 billion was stolen from Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange.
Binance has claimed that most of the stolen assets have been recovered. The exchange resumed operations on Sunday. During the first day after reopening, withdrawals totalled $4.65 billion, while fresh deposits amounted to $1.01 billion.
Net withdrawals represented approximately 2.1% of Binance's reported assets of $171 billion.
Reliance Industries recovered from a decline in first-quarter earnings to report strong growth in the second quarter. Revenue increased 27.8%, operating profit rose 23.9%, and net profit climbed 33.8%.The company reported revenue of ₹3.62 lakh crore and net profit of ₹29,550 crore.
Profit from the oil-to-chemicals business surged 67.9% to ₹25,203 crore. Reliance Industries reduced its debt by ₹1,400 crore to ₹1,17,140 crore.
Jio Platforms reported an 11.4% increase in revenue to ₹40,475 crore, while net profit grew 13.7% to ₹8,387 crore. Jio Platforms' debt stood at ₹1,22,914 crore.
Reliance Retail's revenue increased 6.4% to ₹91,716 crore. However, operating profit declined 10.2% to ₹6,120 crore.
One of the major questions facing global equity markets this week is whether the sharp decline in technology and artificial intelligence stocks will continue.
On Friday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined 3.46%. The technology sector index within the S&P 500 dropped 4.3%.
The sell-off reflects growing investor concerns about whether the enormous capital expenditure being undertaken by technology companies to expand AI infrastructure will generate adequate returns.
Meta Platforms reported negative cash flow earlier, while Alphabet and Amazon also reported negative cash flow during the past week, according to the source report.
Despite the pressure on cash flow, these companies have not indicated plans to reduce AI-related spending. Instead, they are preparing to increase investment.
Investors are demanding greater clarity on how such expenditure will translate into sustainable profitability.
US technology companies collectively lost approximately $1 trillion in market capitalisation on Friday.
Major technology companies, including Google and Amazon, are expected to undertake combined capital expenditure of approximately $750 billion this year. At the same time, their core businesses, including advertising and retail, are facing growth pressures.
A sustained recovery in technology shares may depend on how convincingly these companies demonstrate returns from AI investments.
S&P's decision to revise the outlook on Meta Platforms' AA-minus credit rating to negative could also weigh on market sentiment.
US stock markets ended sharply lower on Friday as concerns over technology valuations and heavy AI investment weighed on investor sentiment.
The US midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday and fears of renewed military action against Iran added to market uncertainty.
Intel shares plunged 29%, while Nvidia declined nearly 5%, pushing its market capitalisation below $5 trillion. Apple regained its position as the world's most valuable company, with a market valuation of $5.03 trillion.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 572.25 points, or 1.09%, to close at 51,770.31. The S&P 500 lost 140.32 points, or 1.82%, to finish at 7,580.07. The Nasdaq Composite declined 747.73 points, or 2.86%. The closing value requires reconciliation because the source provides two different figures.
US equity futures recovered on Monday morning, indicating the possibility of a relief rally following Friday's sharp decline.
Dow Jones futures rose 134 points, or 0.26%, while S&P 500 futures gained 26 points, or 0.33%. Nasdaq futures climbed 194 points, or 0.68%.
The recovery in US futures could support Asian equities and improve sentiment in Indian markets.
Indian American Depository Receipts (ADRs) displayed mixed trends in New York on Friday.
HDFC Bank ADRs gained 1.74% during regular trading but declined 1.98% in subsequent trading to $21.74.
ICICI Bank rose 1.10% during the regular session before slipping 0.27% to $29.37.
Infosys advanced 2.87% during regular trading but later fell 0.72% to $12.46.
Wipro gained 2.37% during the regular session before declining 0.26% to $2.154.
Most major European stock markets ended Friday with substantial losses, with London's FTSE index being the exception.
Technology shares were among the biggest losers as concerns about AI-related expenditure and global technology valuations affected European equities.
Asian equities showed no clear direction on Monday morning. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.80%, while Japan's Nikkei declined 0.10%. Australia's benchmark index fell 0.40%, and Taiwan's market slipped 0.75%.
China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.42%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng registered marginal gains.
Indian benchmark indices extended their gains on Friday, supported by renewed foreign institutional buying. For the week, the Sensex gained 1.8%, while the Nifty 50 advanced 2%.
However, the broader market remained under pressure, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery.
The Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.93% on Friday, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 1.85%.
Information technology, pharmaceuticals and healthcare stocks recorded strong gains. Defence, capital markets, consumer durables, automobiles, real estate, media, FMCG, oil and banking stocks ended lower.
Market breadth remained significantly negative. On the BSE, 1,351 stocks advanced, while 3,015 declined. On the NSE, 1,004 stocks gained and 2,506 ended lower.
Foreign institutional investors made net purchases worth ₹3,598.54 crore in the cash market on Friday. Domestic institutional investors were net sellers of shares worth ₹817.51 crore.
The Sensex rose 308.49 points, or 0.42%, to close at 74,459.53. The Nifty 50 gained 116.35 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 23,053.10. Bank Nifty declined 222.70 points, or 0.41%, to 54,686.95.
The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 550.40 points, or 0.93%, to 57,301.25. The Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 347.75 points, or 1.85%, to close at 18,463.60.
Gold and silver prices remained volatile on Monday morning after suffering steep losses on Friday amid concerns over US interest rates. Gold had fallen below its July low of $3,975 an ounce to approximately $3,876 on Friday. Prices initially recovered in Asian trading on Monday, climbing to $3,915.90 an ounce, before giving up part of the gains.
Falling crude oil prices towards $110 a barrel provided some support to precious metals. On Friday, gold fell as low as $3,869 before closing at $3,876.40 an ounce, a decline of $146.10, or 3.64%.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold declined by ₹1,240 per sovereign on Friday and a further ₹2,480 on Saturday, reaching ₹1,01,840 per sovereign.
Silver dropped 5.84% on Friday to close at $49.25 an ounce. It recovered to $49.86 in early trading on Monday. Platinum was quoted at $1,442 an ounce, palladium at $970 and rhodium at $8,550.
Rubber prices continued to decline in international markets, while Kerala prices maintained their upward trend. In Bangkok, RSS-1 rubber fell to $285.10 per quintal, while RSS-3 declined to $281.70.
In Kerala, RSS-4 rubber reached ₹29,900 per quintal on Saturday. The contrasting trends indicate continuing differences between domestic and international rubber market conditions.
Most industrial metals ended lower on Friday, with lead being the exception. Copper prices declined 0.76% to $14,449 a tonne, while aluminium slipped 0.31% to $3,069 a tonne. Nickel, tin and zinc also recorded losses. Lead prices moved higher.
Cocoa prices declined marginally to close at $5,453 a tonne. Arabica coffee gained 0.61% to $2.872 a pound. Palm oil advanced 1.17% to 4,681 Malaysian ringgit a tonne.
The US dollar index declined on Friday to close at 101.88. It recovered to 101.99 in early trading on Monday before easing slightly. The euro traded at $1.1195, while the British pound stood at $1.3389.
The Japanese yen was quoted at 157.47 per US dollar, while the Chinese yuan remained at 6.66 per dollar.
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond declined to 4.914% on Monday morning.
The rupee registered a notable recovery on Friday, gaining 31 paise to close at ₹94.95 against the US dollar. However, the dollar moved higher to around ₹95 in offshore forward trading on Monday morning. Weakness in the US dollar index could provide further support to the rupee.
The Chinese yuan declined to ₹14.23, while the euro slipped to ₹105.95.
International crude oil prices continued to decline on Monday morning, providing a positive signal for India, which depends heavily on imported oil.
Crude prices had approached $118 a barrel on Friday morning before falling sharply. Brent crude, which closed at $113.43 a barrel on Friday, declined approximately 2% to $110.92 in early trading on Monday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $101.55 a barrel.
Lower crude oil prices could ease India's import bill, reduce inflationary pressures and support the rupee.
Major cryptocurrencies began recovering after the sharp decline triggered by the Binance cyberattack on Friday. Bitcoin climbed above $78,200, while Ether recovered beyond $2,280. Solana traded above $94.75.
The rebound suggests some recovery in risk appetite, although the security breach and its implications continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market.
(Friday, October 30)
Sensex: 74,459.53 (+0.42%)
Nifty 50: 23,053.10 (+0.51%)
Bank Nifty: 54,686.95 (-0.41%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 57,301.25 (-0.93%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 18,463.60 (-1.85%)
Dow Jones: 51,770.31 (-1.09%)
S&P 500: 7,580.07 (-1.82%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,436.99 (-2.86%)
US dollar: ₹94.95 (-₹0.31)
Gold (international): $3,876.40/oz (-$146.10)
Gold (Kerala, Friday): ₹1,04,320/sovereign (-₹1,240)
Gold (Kerala, Saturday): ₹1,01,840/sovereign (-₹2,480)
Brent crude: $113.43/barrel (-$1.46)