Economic war against Iran next; Trump announcement tonight, markets wary

Markets are likely to remain cautious and volatile.
Economic war against Iran next; Trump announcement tonight, markets wary
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The US is set to announce tougher economic sanctions against Iran after 9 pm tonight, raising concerns across stock and currency markets, including in India. Iran has threatened to attack countries that cooperate with the sanctions, fuelling fears that the economic confrontation could escalate into another major conflict.

Markets are therefore likely to remain cautious and volatile.

Crude oil prices fell more than 2 percent in morning trade, slipping below $93 a barrel. Gold continued its upward run.

Gift Nifty, traded in the derivatives segment at GIFT City, closed at 24,329 on Friday night and climbed to 24,361 this morning. The movement indicates that Indian equities could open higher today.

US markets gain

US equities closed higher on Friday despite continued weakness in the bond market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 517.80 points, or 0.98 percent, to close at 53,277.01. The S&P 500 rose 33.21 points, or 0.43 percent, to 7,674.37, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 113.29 points, or 0.44 percent, to 26,180.46.

For the week, however, the Dow Jones fell 6.8 percent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost 1.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

US stock futures were marginally higher this morning. Dow futures were up 22 points, or 0.04 percent, while S&P 500 futures gained 5 points, or 0.07 percent. Nasdaq futures rose 8 points, or 0.03 percent.

Indian ADRs gain

In New York trading, HDFC Bank's American Depository Receipts (ADRs) gained 1.11 percent during regular trading and added another 0.34 percent in after-hours trading to close at $23.68.

ICICI Bank rose 0.81 percent during regular trading and gained another 1.14 percent in after-hours trading, closing at $30.25.

Infosys gained 0.93 percent during regular trading before slipping 0.13 percent in after-hours trading to close at $11.93.

Wipro fell 1.05 percent during regular trading and was unchanged in after-hours trading, ending at $1.89.

Europe ends higher, Asian markets mixed

European equities gained on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 hovering near a record high amid strong corporate earnings. The euro also remained firm.

Asian markets were trading in different directions this morning. South Korea's Kospi fell about 1 percent, with Samsung Electronics down 8 percent. SK Hynix, however, gained 2.5 percent.

Japan's Nikkei was volatile, while Australia's benchmark index gained 0.40 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.65 percent, while the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.50 percent. Taiwan's benchmark index was also higher.

Indian market remains volatile

Indian equities remained volatile on Friday. The market opened higher but slipped into negative territory and fluctuated throughout the session.

Foreign investors continued to sell, recording net sales of ₹542.71 crore in the cash market. Domestic funds, meanwhile, were net buyers to the tune of ₹2,124.14 crore.

The Sensex gained just 3.11 points, or almost 0 percent, to close at 77,540.83. The Nifty 50 rose 20.15 points, or 0.08 percent, to 24,252. The Bank Nifty gained 266.05 points, or 0.46 percent, to 57,761.95.

The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 64.20 points, or 0.10 percent, to 63,735.75, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 136.30 points, or 0.69 percent, to 19,977.75.

Market breadth was relatively balanced. On the BSE, 2,177 stocks advanced and 2,152 declined. On the NSE, 1,873 stocks gained while 1,633 fell.

Sugar stocks came under pressure after the government allowed duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of sugar. Balrampur Chini, Shakti, Rana, Rajshree, Shree Renuka, Ponni, Dalmia, Avadh and Dwarikesh, among others, declined after three consecutive sessions of gains.

Metal, realty, banking and financial stocks performed well, while IT, automobile, FMCG, healthcare and media stocks declined.

Gold extends rally

Turbulence in the bond market and concerns over possible economic sanctions against Iran are supporting gold prices.

Movements in the bond market indicate expectations of higher interest rates. Gold gained about 2 percent on Friday to close at $4,604.40 an ounce. It climbed as high as $4,642 this morning before easing to around $4,630.

Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, while lower rates tend to support gold investment.

In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold rose by a combined ₹2,800 per sovereign on Friday and Saturday to reach ₹1,19,600. Prices could rise further today.

Silver gained marginally on Friday to close at $69.11 an ounce and rose to $69.34 this morning.

Platinum was at $1,874 an ounce, palladium at $1,332 and rhodium at $8,550.

Rubber prices rise

International rubber prices rose significantly, while prices in Kerala remained unchanged.

In Bangkok, RSS 1 rose to $284.46 per quintal and RSS 3 to $280.96. In Kerala, RSS 4 remained at ₹27,400 per quintal.

Industrial metals gain

Industrial metals advanced on Friday. Copper gained 0.86 percent to $14,290.85 a tonne, while aluminium rose 0.53 percent to $3,215.83. Zinc, lead, tin and nickel also gained.

Cocoa volatile, palm oil rises

Cocoa prices climbed to $6,064 a tonne before closing at $6,034.

Ghana's cocoa board expects production to fall 13 percent because of adverse weather conditions. Production in Ivory Coast is also expected to decline by more than 10 percent. The two countries are the world's largest cocoa producers.

HedgePoint Global Markets expects the global cocoa surplus to fall 66 percent in 2026-27 to 111,000 tonnes.

Arabica coffee prices fell 2.02 percent to $3.23 a pound amid concerns that El Niño could reduce production.

Palm oil prices rose above 5,000 Malaysian ringgit a tonne over the weekend. Lower production and increased use of palm oil for Indonesia's biodiesel programme are supporting prices. On Friday, palm oil gained 1.15 percent to 5,018 ringgit a tonne.

Dollar remains firm

The US Dollar Index closed at 98.80 on Friday. It slipped to 98.76 this morning before rising to 98.84.

The euro moved towards $1.17, while the pound rose to $1.3649. The Japanese yen weakened to 158.94 against the dollar. The Chinese yuan remained around 6.72 per dollar.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.736 percent on Friday before easing to 4.716 percent today. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.273 percent before falling to 5.253 percent.

Rupee gains marginally

The Indian rupee ended slightly stronger on Friday, with the dollar falling by one paisa to close at ₹95.70.

In the offshore forward market this morning, the dollar initially rose to ₹95.98 before falling to ₹95.29. It later recovered to ₹95.61.

The Chinese yuan was quoted at ₹14.26 and the euro at ₹111.99.

Crude oil slips below $93

Crude oil prices, which approached $94 a barrel at the weekend, moved lower as the new week began.

After gaining about 5 percent last week, crude fell more than 2 percent this morning. Brent crude rose $0.61 on Friday to close at $94.39 but fell 2.16 percent this morning to $92.35. WTI crude was at $85.14.

Cryptocurrencies rally

Cryptocurrencies extended their strong rally. The latest development is President Donald Trump's discussions with officials on advancing legislation favourable to the crypto industry. A bill introduced last year had remained stalled after being rejected in the Senate.

Bitcoin surged to $78,026 over the weekend before easing to around $77,200 this morning.

Ether, which climbed as high as $2,484, was trading above $2,450. Solana, after rising to $97.15, remained above $94.50.

Market indicators

(Friday, August 21)

Sensex 77,540.83 +0.00%

Nifty 50 24,252.00 +0.08%

Bank Nifty 57,761.95 +0.46%

Midcap 100 63,735.75 +0.10%

Smallcap 100 19,977.75 +0.69%

Dow Jones 53,277.01 +0.98%

S&P 500 7,674.37 +0.43%

Nasdaq 26,180.46 +0.44%

Dollar ₹95.70 -₹0.01

Gold (ounce) $4,604.40 +$84.10

Gold (sovereign) ₹1,18,480 +₹1,680

Saturday ₹1,19,600 +₹1,120

Brent crude $94.39 +$0.61

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