Tensions in West Asia have moved closer to a possible military flare-up at any moment. However, markets still expect that the situation may not escalate sharply until US President Donald Trump completes his China visit. Even so, crude oil prices briefly crossed $105 a barrel this morning.
Although the Centre clarified that there is no fuel shortage and no move to raise import duty on gold, concerns over India’s economic growth are mounting. Several agencies have cut India’s growth forecast to around 6 percent or lower. Markets also expect a rise in fuel prices soon, which could worsen inflationary pressures.
These concerns are likely to keep Indian markets under pressure today.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty closed at 23,730 on Monday night. It fell to around 23,600 this morning before recovering slightly, indicating another weak opening for the Nifty.
US markets closed slightly higher despite fading hopes of an Iran-US understanding. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended at record highs, while the Dow Jones remains just 700 points below its peak.
Markets are now focused on April inflation data due later today. Inflation is expected at 3.7 percent, compared with 3.3 percent in March.
On Monday, the Dow Jones gained 95.31 points (0.19 percent) to close at 49,704.47. The S&P 500 rose 13.91 points (0.19 percent) to 7412.84, while the Nasdaq advanced 27.05 points (0.10 percent) to end at 26,274.13.
US futures were trading lower this morning. Dow futures fell 75 points (0.15 percent), S&P futures lost 22 points (0.29 percent), and Nasdaq futures dropped 164 points (0.55 percent).
In New York trading on Monday, HDFC Bank ADR fell 3.28 percent before recovering 0.21 percent in after-hours trade to $24.25.
ICICI Bank ADR declined 1.47 percent during regular trade and slipped another 0.31 percent after hours to $26.02.
Infosys ADR dropped 4.13 percent before recovering 0.40 percent in extended trade to close at $12.35. Wipro fell 2.56 percent before gaining 0.53 percent in after-hours trade to end at $1.91.
European markets closed higher on Monday despite no visible progress in West Asia peace efforts.
Asian markets traded mixed this morning. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi gained 2 percent to hit record highs. Australia’s market fell 0.60 percent. Hong Kong opened higher, while Shanghai traded lower.
Fears that economic restrictions could follow the West Asia conflict dragged Indian markets sharply lower on Monday. The Prime Minister’s call for spending cuts, work-from-home measures and postponing gold purchases added to investor anxiety. Concerns also spread over possible shortages of fuel and fertilisers, forcing the government to later clarify that supplies remain adequate.
Benchmark indices ended with losses of more than 1.5 percent, while the broader market also weakened sharply.
Realty, consumer durables, oil, auto, banking and financial stocks led the decline.
Jewellery stocks came under severe pressure after the Prime Minister advised people to defer gold purchases for a year. Shares of Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers, PNG Jewellers, Senco Gold, Thangamayil Jewellery and others fell as much as 9 percent.
Rising fuel price fears pushed InterGlobe Aviation down 5 percent.
State Bank of India fell 4.36 percent after weak quarterly results. The stock has dropped 11 percent over the past two sessions.
Foreign investors continued aggressive selling. FIIs sold equities worth ₹8,437.56 crore in the cash market on Monday, while domestic institutions bought shares worth ₹5,939.65 crore. Foreign investors have withdrawn more than ₹2.26 lakh-crore from Indian markets so far in 2026.
The Sensex plunged 1,312.91 points (1.70 percent) to close at 76,015.28. Nifty 50 lost 360.30 points (1.49 percent) to end at 23,815.85. Bank Nifty declined 870.65 points (1.57 percent) to 54,439.90.
The Midcap 100 index fell 1.05 percent to 61,258.40, while the Smallcap 100 index dropped 1.13 percent to 18,525.80.
Market breadth remained weak. On the BSE, 1,358 shares advanced while 3,000 declined. On the NSE, 954 stocks gained and 2,350 fell.
Indian Hotels Company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings. Net profit rose 14.9 percent from ₹522 crore to ₹600 crore.
Heritage Foods posted a 10.40 percent rise in revenue, but net profit fell 37.28 percent in the fourth quarter.
Canara Bank reported a 3.88 percent rise in net interest income, while net profit declined 9.95 percent.
UPL Limited reported an 18 percent increase in revenue and a 20 percent rise in net profit.
Gold prices continued to rise amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia.
Gold gained $20.80 on Monday to close at $4,736.50 an ounce. It climbed to $4,774 this morning before easing to around $4,728.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold prices rose ₹800 per sovereign on Monday to ₹1,12,520.
Silver surged more than 7 percent on Monday to close at $86.22 an ounce and rose further to $86.79 this morning.
Platinum stood at $2,131, palladium at $1,494 and rhodium at $9,500.
Industrial metals posted strong gains on Monday. Copper jumped 1.70 percent to $13,672.65 a tonne, close to its record high of $13,843.40.
Aluminium rose 1.48 percent to $3,558.59. Nickel, zinc, lead and tin also advanced.
After several days of gains, rubber prices weakened in Bangkok. RSS-3 grade rubber fell $1.20 per quintal to $303.30, while RSS-1 stood at $306.90.
Kerala rubber prices, however, rose more than 1 percent again on Monday.
Synthetic rubber gained 0.05 percent to 16,050 yuan per tonne.
Coffee prices rose 2.37 percent to 281.30 cents a pound. Palm oil prices climbed to 4,516 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
After falling late last week, cocoa prices rebounded strongly on Monday, surging 12.34 percent to $4,698 a tonne.
Ghana is reportedly preparing a $1 billion cocoa storage programme. Concerns are also rising over drought conditions in Ghana and Ivory Coast affecting both supply and quality. Markets fear fertiliser price increases and El Niño conditions may further reduce crop output in coming months.
Cocoa’s record high remains the $12,906 per tonne touched in December 2024.
The US dollar index edged up to 97.96 on Monday and climbed further to 98.12 this morning.
The euro weakened to $1.1766, while the pound slipped to $1.3587. The Japanese yen fell to 157.51 against the dollar.
The Chinese yuan remained near 6.80 per dollar.
US 10-year bond yields, after easing on Friday, rose again to 4.42 percent this morning.
Higher crude prices and the Prime Minister’s call to curb imports dragged the rupee sharply lower on Monday.
The dollar jumped 83 paise to close at ₹95.31, the rupee’s weakest-ever closing level. The currency is likely to remain under pressure today.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward market, the dollar traded near ₹95.50 this morning. The yuan rose to ₹14.03 and the euro to ₹112.24, adding further pressure on the rupee.
Persistent tensions in West Asia pushed crude oil prices higher.
Brent crude briefly approached $106 a barrel before closing at $104.21 on Monday. This morning, Brent traded near $105.02.
WTI crude stood at $98.78, while UAE Murban crude traded at $103.60.
Cryptocurrencies declined on Monday.
Bitcoin slipped below $81,200 this morning. Ether fell below $2,320, while Solana traded under $96.5.
(May 11, Monday)
Sensex: 76,015.28 (-1.70%)
Nifty 50: 23,815.85 (-1.49%)
Bank Nifty: 54,439.90 (-1.57%)
Midcap 100: 61,258.40 (-1.05%)
Smallcap 100: 18,525.80 (-1.13%)
Dow Jones: 49,704.47 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 7412.84 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq: 26,274.13 (+0.10%)
Dollar/Rupee: ₹95.31 (+₹0.83)
Gold (ounce): $4,736.50 (+$20.80)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,12,520 (+₹800)
Brent crude: $104.21 (+$2.92)
