The West Asian conflict has entered a more dangerous phase, reviving uncertainty across global markets. However, US futures and Asian equities are not signalling a sharp sell-off yet. Crude oil surged as much as 7.5 percent in early trade before trimming gains. Gold fell over 1.5 percent and then rebounded strongly.
GIFT Nifty closed at 24,700.00 on Friday night in derivatives trade at GIFT City. It slipped to 24,442 in early trade today before recovering to around 24,500, indicating a mildly positive start for the Nifty.
Iran’s claim on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open has proved short-lived. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) overruled the foreign ministry and effectively shut shipping lanes again. The US Navy reportedly seized an Iranian cargo vessel, while Iranian gunboats engaged US ships.
Donald Trump warned that unless Iran agrees to negotiations, all bridges and power plants in the country could be destroyed. This escalation came after Trump said US representatives would travel to Pakistan for talks. However, Iranian media now say Tehran will not participate, clouding prospects of diplomacy—though markets are still holding on to some hope.
There is also growing speculation that the IRGC has effectively sidelined Iran’s political leadership, with reports suggesting Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi could be removed.
US equities surged on Friday after Iran’s initial claim of reopening Hormuz:
Dow Jones jumped 868.71 points (1.79 percent) to 49,447.43
S&P 500 rose 84.78 points (1.20 percent) to 7,126.06
Nasdaq climbed 365.78 points (1.52 percent) to 24,468.48
Nasdaq has now risen for 13 consecutive sessions.
This morning, US futures are lower but off early lows:
Dow down 366 points (0.74 percent)
S&P 500 down 38 points (0.53 percent)
Nasdaq down 123 points (0.47 percent)
HDFC Bank ADR rose 4.09 percent, adding further in after-hours to $27.59
ICICI Bank ADR gained 1.48 percent before easing slightly
Infosys ADR and Wipro ADR also posted modest gains
European markets rose about 2 percent on Friday.
Asian markets opened weak today but recovered:
Nikkei up 0.85 percent
Kospi up 1.20 percent
Australian index marginally higher
Chinese and Hong Kong markets also opened in the green
Indian equities reversed early losses on Friday to close strongly, with broader markets outperforming:
Sensex up 504.86 points (0.65 percent) at 78,493.54
Nifty up 156.80 points (0.65 percent) at 24,353.55
Bank Nifty up 0.85 percent
Mid cap and small cap indices posted sharper gains.
--FIIs net buyers: ₹683.20 crore
--DIIs net sellers: ₹4,721.48 crore
--Market breadth remained positive across both BSE and NSE.
ICICI Bank: net profit up 8.5 percent; NIM steady at 4.32 percent; loan growth 15.8 percent
HDFC Bank: quarterly profit up 9 percent; annual profit up 10.9 percent; asset quality improved
Yes Bank: profit surged 44.7 percent to ₹1,068 crore; NPA ratios declined
Gold initially rose on hopes of easing tensions but dropped sharply as conflict intensified, before rebounding again:
Closed Friday at $4,831.40 per ounce (+$40.10)
Fell to $4,736 early today
Recovered to around $4,812
In Kerala, 22-carat gold:
Fell ₹440 on Friday
Rose ₹600 on Saturday to ₹1,14,240 per sovereign
Akshaya Tritiya demand supported prices.
Silver and other metals:
Silver volatile near $80 per ounce
Platinum at $2,100; palladium at $1,537; rhodium at $9,800
Base metals weakened on easing supply fears:
Copper down 0.23 percent
Aluminium down 1.51 percent
Zinc, lead and nickel gained; tin declined
--Rubber slightly lower
--Cocoa fell over 5 percent on weak demand outlook
--Tea prices rose; coffee declined
--Palm oil edged lower
--Polymers and fertilisers also softened, with urea and DAP prices declining.
The dollar index edged higher to 98.33.
Euro at $1.1754
Pound at $1.349
Yen weakened to 158.95 per dollar
US 10-year yield rose to 4.272 percent.
The rupee strengthened on Friday:
Closed at 92.93 per dollar (up 27 paise)
However, rising crude prices and geopolitical risks may pressure the currency today.
In the NDF market, the dollar moved from 92.60 to 92.77.
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices sharply higher before partial cooling:
Brent surged to $97.50, then eased to $94.75
WTI rose to $90.20, now near $88.99
June futures around $86.97
Cryptocurrencies weakened amid risk aversion:
Bitcoin below $74,400
Ether below $2,300
Solana below $84
Sensex: 78,493.54 (+0.65%)
Nifty 50: 24,353.55 (+0.65%)
Bank Nifty: 56,565.70 (+0.85%)
Mid cap 100: 59,898.20 (+1.27%)
Small cap 100: 17,565.78 (+1.48%)
Dow Jones: 49,447.43 (+1.79%)
S&P 500: 7,126.06 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq: 24,468.48 (+1.48%)
Dollar: ₹92.93 (−₹0.27)
Gold ($/oz): 4,831.40 (+40.10)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,13,640 (Fri), ₹1,14,240 (Sat)
Brent crude: $90.38 (−$9.01)
