Indian equities are hoping for a relief rally on Friday, October 9, after a sharp selloff pushed benchmark indices to fresh lows. A modest decline in crude oil prices, gains in US stock futures and signs of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran have offered some encouragement to investors.
However, the broader market environment remains challenging. Elevated crude prices, higher borrowing costs, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and pressure on the rupee continue to weigh on sentiment.
US President Donald Trump's indication that Washington would not launch fresh attacks on Iran before the November midterm elections has helped calm immediate concerns over further escalation in West Asia. The US has also reportedly resumed indirect discussions with Tehran.
GIFT Nifty, which closed at 22,370 on Thursday night, slipped to 22,326 before recovering to around 22,392 on Friday morning. The movement indicates the possibility of a positive opening for Indian equities.
The September-quarter earnings season, the latest GST Council decisions and developments in West Asia will also influence trading.
Indian stocks extended their losses on Thursday, October 8, as concerns over inflation, crude oil, interest rates, global bond yields and foreign investor selling triggered widespread selling.
The Sensex plunged 1,045.46 points, or 1.44%, to close at 71,593.24. The Nifty 50 declined 371.25 points, or 1.64%, to settle at 22,231.80.
The Nifty slipped to a fresh low for 2026 as investors reduced exposure to equities amid growing economic uncertainty.
Sensex: 71,593.24, down 1,045.46 points (1.44%)
Nifty 50: 22,231.80, down 371.25 points (1.64%)
Bank Nifty: 54,515.05, down 540.50 points (0.98%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 57,882.50, down 1,500.10 points (2.53%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,050.10, down 456.85 points (2.34%)
Almost all sectors ended in negative territory. Metals, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, tourism, defence, capital markets, oil and gas, consumer durables, real estate, healthcare and media were among the worst affected.
IT stocks showed relative resilience but also ended lower.
Market breadth reflected the intensity of the selloff.
BSE: 910 stocks advanced, while 3,545 declined.
NSE: 649 stocks gained, while 2,940 declined.
The sharp decline in midcap and smallcap stocks suggests that selling pressure was more pronounced in the broader market than among benchmark heavyweights.
Foreign institutional investors substantially increased their selling in Indian equities on Thursday.
FII net selling: ₹12,943.58 crore
Domestic institutional investor (DII) net buying: ₹10,703.11 crore
Although domestic institutions continued to support the market, their purchases were insufficient to offset the impact of foreign outflows.
Sustained FII selling, coupled with pressure on the rupee and elevated international bond yields, remains a major concern for Indian stocks.
The GST Council meeting on October 8 recommended several reforms aimed at simplifying tax compliance, reducing litigation and providing relief to businesses.
One of the most significant recommendations was the removal of arrest provisions under GST. The Council also proposed increasing the monetary threshold for criminal prosecution from ₹1 crore to ₹5 crore.
Remove GST-related arrest provisions.
Increase the threshold for criminal prosecution to ₹5 crore.
Reduce the general penalty from ₹25,000 to ₹10,000.
Avoid issuing notices involving amounts of ₹10,000 or less, subject to the applicable conditions.
Simplify registration and compliance procedures.
Improve the speed of GST refunds.
Introduce greater consistency in notices and enforcement procedures.
Ease compliance requirements for eligible small businesses and e-commerce sellers.
The recommendations are expected to benefit businesses, particularly MSMEs, by reducing regulatory uncertainty and compliance costs. The Council did not recommend major changes to the existing GST rate structure.
The proposed reforms will require the necessary legal and administrative steps before they become operational.
Geopolitical developments continue to influence global financial markets, with the conflict involving Iran and the continuing instability in the Gulf keeping energy prices elevated.
Trump has indicated that the US is not planning another major attack on Iran before the November midterm elections. He also said indirect discussions with Tehran had resumed.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated that Washington does not have plans for a ground invasion of Iran. The comments have provided some relief to financial markets, although the overall security situation remains uncertain.
Several developments continue to support international crude prices.
Attacks on oil tankers have disrupted movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
Alternative shipping and supply routes are being used where possible.
Concerns remain over the availability of Iranian crude supplies.
Weather-related risks threaten production in the US Gulf Coast.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to affect energy infrastructure.
Escalating tensions involving Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia have also added to regional uncertainty.
Air services to parts of the Gulf have been disrupted, with airlines adjusting schedules in response to security concerns.
For India, developments in West Asia are particularly important because of the country's dependence on imported crude oil.
A sustained increase in oil prices could widen the trade deficit, weaken the rupee, increase inflationary pressures and affect corporate profitability.
The Trump administration has suspended several major technology companies from the US Permanent Labour Certification (PERM) programme, creating fresh uncertainty for Indian professionals seeking employment-based green cards.
The restrictions affect prominent Indian IT service providers as well as multinational technology companies.
The action follows concerns over employment practices and allegations involving the replacement of American workers with foreign employees.
PERM certification is an important step in the employment-based green card process. It generally requires employers to demonstrate that qualified American workers are not available for the relevant positions under prescribed conditions.
The development adds to the challenges faced by Indian IT companies as they adjust their international staffing and recruitment strategies.
A disagreement over India's satellite communication market has escalated after Elon Musk criticised what he described as resistance from established telecom interests to Starlink's entry into the country.
Musk subsequently questioned the influence of Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, bringing the disagreement into sharper public focus.
Important participants in India's emerging satellite communications market include:
Starlink, promoted by Elon Musk's SpaceX
Reliance Jio, part of Reliance Industries
Eutelsat OneWeb, backed by Bharti interests
The dispute has renewed attention on regulatory approvals, spectrum allocation and competition between conventional telecom companies and satellite-based internet service providers.
Satellite connectivity could play an important role in expanding broadband access to remote and underserved parts of India.
For investors, the disagreement highlights the commercial potential of India's satellite communication market as well as the regulatory challenges facing new entrants.
TCS reported its September-quarter financial results on Thursday, providing an early indication of demand conditions in the Indian IT industry.
The company reported quarterly revenue of approximately $7.64 billion, representing year-on-year growth of around 2.4% in dollar terms.
Other key figures included:
Net profit: Approximately $1.45 billion
Operating margin: 24%
Total contract value: $9.6 billion
Annualised AI revenue: More than $3.1 billion
Despite growth in artificial intelligence-related business, traditional IT services continue to face challenges as clients remain cautious about discretionary technology spending.
Management commentary on demand, client budgets and project execution will be closely watched by investors.
Brokerage estimates cited in market reports suggest that Nifty 50 companies could report aggregate net profit growth of approximately 24.9% for the September quarter.
If realised, this would represent one of the strongest quarterly earnings performances in recent periods.
However, earnings growth alone may not be sufficient to reverse the market's weakness unless foreign investor selling moderates and global financial conditions stabilise.
US equities began Thursday's session on a weak note before recovering partially.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close higher, supported by easing Treasury yields and a relatively smooth auction of 30-year US government bonds.
However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower as technology and artificial intelligence-related stocks came under selling pressure.
Dow Jones: 51,231.64, up 51.77 points (0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,765.36, down 36.41 points (0.47%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,193.34, down 345.35 points (1.25%)
The successful US bond auction helped improve sentiment towards traditional industrial stocks. The Dow recovered substantially from its intraday lows.
Concerns over the scale and pace of returns from artificial intelligence investments weighed on technology stocks.
Reports about OpenAI's revenue expectations contributed to renewed debate over AI spending and the valuations of companies supplying computing infrastructure.
Several major technology and semiconductor companies came under pressure, including:
Nvidia
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Broadcom
Intel
Oracle
CoreWeave
Super Micro Computer
Some of these stocks recorded declines ranging from approximately 3% to 8%.
Investors remain concerned about whether the rapid expansion in AI infrastructure spending will translate into sustainable profits across the industry.
US futures were trading modestly higher in early Asian trading on Friday.
Dow Jones futures: Up 92 points (0.18%)
S&P 500 futures: Up 16 points (0.20%)
Nasdaq futures: Up 83 points (0.27%)
The recovery indicates an improvement in sentiment after Thursday's technology-led selling.
However, developments in the bond market, crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions will remain important for the direction of US equities.
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of Indian companies recorded mixed movements in New York.
HDFC Bank: Declined 0.59% in regular trading and weakened another 0.64% in extended trading, with the price around $21.87.
ICICI Bank: Gained 0.14% in regular trading and advanced another 0.29% in extended trading to around $27.98.
Infosys: Rose 1.42% during regular trading and was indicated around $10.70 in subsequent trading.
Wipro: Remained broadly unchanged in regular trading before declining approximately 2.99% in extended trading to around $1.62.
Movements in these ADRs could influence sentiment towards banking and IT stocks in the Indian market.
European equities continued to weaken on Thursday amid volatility in government bond markets and concerns over rising energy costs.
Higher bond yields have increased borrowing costs and reduced the relative attractiveness of equities.
The main concerns include:
Elevated energy prices
Inflationary pressures
Government bond market volatility
Uncertainty over interest rates
Political and social unrest in parts of Europe
Student protests spreading from France to Belgium have added to the unsettled political environment.
Major Asian markets were mixed in early Friday trading as investors assessed developments in the US and commodity markets.
Japan's Nikkei: Down 1.20%
Australia's benchmark index: Up 0.50%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng: Up 1.20%
Shanghai Composite: Down 0.28%
The mixed performance indicates that regional investors remain cautious despite the recovery in US futures.
International gold prices extended their gains on Friday morning, supported by a softer US dollar and continuing geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold rose $22.60, or 0.55%, on Thursday to close at $4,134.50 an ounce.
The metal gained approximately 1% in early Friday trading, reaching around $4,176 an ounce.
Gold continues to attract demand as a safe-haven asset even though there is no clear indication of an immediate decline in global interest rates.
The price of 22-carat gold remained unchanged on Thursday.
One pavan (8 grams): ₹1,09,680
One gram: ₹13,710
Daily change: Nil
The increase in international gold prices could lead to a revision in domestic rates, depending on the rupee's movement and local pricing conditions.
*Silver: Recovered from $59.22 to around $60.20 an ounce
Platinum: $1,660 an ounce
Palladium: $1,125 an ounce
Rhodium: $8,250 an ounce
Rubber prices rose further in international and domestic markets on Thursday.
Bangkok market:
RSS-1: $293.40 per quintal
RSS-3: $290 per quintal
Rubber price in Keralam:
RSS-4: ₹28,200 per quintal
The price increase provides support to rubber growers in Keralam, although higher input costs could put pressure on tyre manufacturers and other rubber-based industries.
Industrial metal prices moved in different directions as investors assessed global demand conditions and supply-related developments.
*Copper: Up 0.12% to $14,526 a tonne
Aluminium: Down 1.43% to $3,068.60 a tonne
Tin: Declined
Lead: Declined
Nickel: Declined
Zinc: Advanced
Copper remained relatively firm, while several other base metals recorded losses.
Agricultural commodities recorded mixed price movements.
Cocoa: Up 0.69% to $5,617 a tonne
Arabica coffee: Down 1.66% to $2.878 a pound
Palm oil: Up 3.03% to 4,661 Malaysian ringgit a tonne
Changes in these commodity prices are relevant to Indian food processors, edible oil importers and businesses dependent on agricultural raw materials.
The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index closing at 102.14.
The index declined further to approximately 101.99 in early Friday trading.
Dollar index: 101.99
Euro: $1.1221
British pound: $1.3237
Japanese yen: 157.87 per dollar
Chinese yuan: 6.70 per dollar
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield declined to approximately 5.227% on Friday morning.
Lower Treasury yields provided some support to financial markets, although global borrowing costs remain elevated.
The Indian rupee remained unchanged against the US dollar on Thursday despite pressure from foreign investor outflows and elevated crude oil prices.
The dollar approached ₹97 during trading, but reported intervention by the Reserve Bank of India helped stabilise the currency.
The rupee closed at ₹96.78 against the dollar.
Dollar/rupee closing rate: ₹96.78
Offshore forward market high: ₹96.90
Subsequent offshore indication: ₹96.85
Chinese yuan: ₹14.44
Euro: ₹108.62
A weaker rupee increases the cost of imported commodities, especially petroleum, and can add to domestic inflation.
Continued FII selling and high crude oil prices could keep the currency under pressure.
International crude oil prices declined modestly on Friday morning following a sharp increase in the previous session.
Brent crude climbed to around $105 a barrel on Thursday before closing at $104.28, up $4.08.
The benchmark eased to approximately $103.40 in early Friday trading.
*Brent crude, Thursday close: $104.28 a barrel
*Brent crude, Friday morning: $103.40 a barrel
*WTI crude, Friday morning: $90.79 a barrel
Trump's comments on avoiding an immediate military escalation with Iran helped moderate prices.
However, concerns over tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil supplies, disruptions to Gulf energy infrastructure and weather-related risks to US production remain important.
Sustained crude prices above $100 a barrel could have several implications:
Increase India's petroleum import bill.
Widen the trade and current account deficits.
Add pressure on the rupee.
Increase inflationary risks.
Raise operating costs for aviation, paints, chemicals and transport companies.
Complicate the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decisions.
Crude oil remains one of the most important external factors influencing Indian equities.
Major cryptocurrencies weakened further in early Friday trading amid continued caution towards risk assets.
Bitcoin: Below $81,650
Ether: Below $2,475
Solana: Below $109
The declines reflect uncertainty over global liquidity, interest rates and investor appetite for higher-risk investments.
Closing levels — October 8, 2026
Sensex: 71,593.24 (-1.44%)
Nifty 50: 22,231.80 (-1.64%)
Bank Nifty: 54,515.05 (-0.98%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 57,882.50 (-2.53%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 19,050.10 (-2.34%)
Dow Jones: 51,231.64 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,765.36 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,193.34 (-1.25%)
US dollar: ₹96.78 (unchanged)
Gold (international): $4,134.50/oz (+$22.60)
Gold (Keralam, pavan): ₹1,09,680 (unchanged)
Brent crude: $104.28/barrel (+$4.08)
