Global markets have slipped back into risk-off mode as escalating tensions between the US and Iran keep investors on edge. Crude oil prices remain elevated amid threats and counter-threats, while hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough offer only limited relief.
Asian markets opened sharply lower this morning, mirroring weakness in US futures, though losses were partly trimmed later. The spike in geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate sentiment across asset classes.
GIFT Nifty, which closed at 23,133.50 on Friday night, dropped to around 22,737 in early trade, indicating a sharply negative opening for Indian equities today.
The Iran conflict has entered its fourth week with heightened rhetoric:
US President Donald Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened
Iran threatened retaliation targeting fuel and water infrastructure across West Asia
Reports suggest the US may attempt to seize Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island
In a significant development, Iran reportedly launched two missiles towards Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean—home to US and UK military bases—highlighting its long-range strike capability of up to 4,000 km.
US equities fell further on Friday as war concerns intensified:
Dow Jones fell 443.96 points (0.96 percent) to 45,577.47
S&P 500 declined 100.01 points (1.51 percent) to 6,506.48
Nasdaq dropped 443.08 points (2.01 percent) to 21,647.61
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now entered correction territory, falling over 10 percent from recent highs.
US futures were marginally lower this morning.
European markets ended about 2 percent lower on Friday, while Asian markets are seeing steep declines today:
Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi down 5 percent
Australia down 1.4 percent
Hong Kong and China opened weak
Indian equities staged a recovery on Friday but lost momentum later in the day as rising crude prices weighed on sentiment.
Sensex rose 325.72 points (0.44 percent) to 74,532.96
Nifty 50 gained 112.35 points (0.49 percent) to 23,114.50
Bank Nifty slipped marginally by 0.04 percent
Broader markets outperformed, with mid cap and small cap indices posting gains.
However, the broader trend remains weak:
Sensex down 8.3 percent and Nifty down 8.2 percent over the past three weeks
Foreign investors pulled out ₹88,180 crore during this period
Total FPI outflows in 2026 so far exceed ₹1.04 lakh-crore
Contrary to typical safe-haven behaviour, precious metals have seen sharp declines:
Gold has fallen 14.9 percent in three weeks
Silver has plunged 27.6 percent
This is being driven by fears that higher crude prices could push central banks to raise interest rates further.
Gold closed at $4,492.20 per ounce on Friday, down 3.4 percent
It fell below $4,350 earlier today before recovering slightly
Silver is around $67.45 per ounce
In Kerala, 22-carat gold dropped sharply to ₹1,07,040 per sovereign.
Industrial metals rebounded after Thursday’s sell-off:
Copper rose 1.66 percent to $12,021.40 per tonne
Tin surged 5 percent
Aluminium declined 1.16 percent
Other commodities:
Rubber down 1.25 percent
Cocoa fell 2.28 percent
Tea rose 5.21 percent
Coffee gained 2.94 percent
Palm oil moved higher
The dollar index climbed to 99.69, reflecting strong demand for the US currency.
Euro weakened to $1.1542
Pound fell to $1.3313
Yen slipped to 159.47 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.404 percent, signalling expectations of higher interest rates.
The rupee came under sharp pressure:
Fell ₹1.08 (1.26 percent) to close at 93.71
Offshore markets indicate a move beyond 94
Key concerns:
Rising oil import bill
Continued FPI outflows
Weak export momentum
Pressure on balance of payments
Oil prices continue to hover at high levels amid supply fears:
Brent crude: $112.19 per barrel
WTI crude: around $98
Indian basket: above $156
Cryptocurrencies extended losses over the weekend:
Bitcoin slipped below $68,000
Ether fell under $2,060
Solana dropped below $87
Sensex: 74,532.96 (+0.44%)
Nifty 50: 23,114.50 (+0.49%)
Bank Nifty: 53,427.05 (-0.04%)
Midcap 100: 54,855.50 (+0.67%)
Smallcap 100: 15,718.60 (+0.09%)
Dow Jones: 45,577.47 (-0.96%)
S&P 500: 6,506.48 (-1.51%)
Nasdaq: 21,647.61 (-2.01%)
Dollar: ₹93.71 (+₹1.08)
Gold (oz): $4,492.20 (-$158.50)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,07,040
Brent crude: $112.19 (+$3.54)
