The markets are heading into another period of turbulent trading. Tensions will intensify until the US elections on 3 November. Fuel prices will remain elevated.Foreign institutional investors
Reliance Industries' Jio Platforms mega initial public offering (IPO) will be a major focus this week. However, there is little enthusiasm for the issue in the unofficial grey market.
The United States recently lifted restrictions on Russian oil trade to bring down fuel prices. Crude oil prices consequently fell from $110 to $108 a barrel.
Iran has again attacked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Ukraine is continuing its attacks on refineries in Russia. These developments suggest that there is little prospect of significant relief in oil prices.
Iran will continue its efforts to push crude oil prices as high as possible before 3 November.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, GIFT Nifty closed at 23,085.00 on Friday night. It rose to 23,174.50 this morning before declining. This indicates that the Indian market could open with modest gains today.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will arrive in Mumbai tomorrow. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will hold talks with him.
Rubio will also visit Reliance Industries' mega refinery and the Vantara animal conservation facility in Jamnagar tomorrow.
He will hold discussions with Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani on crude oil and diesel trade, as well as Reliance's investment in a refinery in Texas.
In Mumbai, Rubio will meet Tata Sons Chairman N. Chandrasekaran and Adani Group Chairman Gautam Adani.
Rubio's decision not to visit New Delhi has also become a subject of discussion.
Various speculations are circulating about the purpose of his visit, which comes at a time when India-US relations have been severely strained.
Some see a connection between Rubio's visit to Reliance just ahead of the Jio mega IPO and the end of the war of words between American billionaire Elon Musk and Reliance.
The slump in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks triggered a sharp fall in US markets on Friday.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell below their 50-day moving averages. The Volatility Index, widely regarded as a measure of market fear, climbed above 22 for the first time in four months.
An exchange-traded fund tracking semiconductor companies declined 10% last week. There are concerns that competition from China could push several companies into losses.
Investors are also worried that heavily indebted AI companies may not generate returns proportionate to their enormous borrowings.
Together, these concerns resulted in a weekly loss of 4% for the Nasdaq and 2% for the S&P 500. The Dow, however, gained 0.7% over the week.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 175.28 points, or 0.34%, to close at 52,002.41.
The S&P 500 declined 84.62 points, or 1.09%, to end at 7,659.44.
The Nasdaq Composite plunged 572.99 points, or 2.15%, to close at 26,140.03.
US futures are trading higher today.
Dow futures are up 86 points, or 0.16%, while S&P 500 futures have gained 35 points, or 0.45%.
Nasdaq futures have advanced 248 points, or 0.84%.
In the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) market in New York, HDFC Bank gained 1.32% during regular trading on Friday before declining 0.63% in after-hours trade to close at $23.69.
ICICI Bank rose 1.87% during the regular session and remained unchanged in after-hours trading at $29.99.
Infosys gained 0.91% during regular trading before declining 0.16% in after-hours trade to close at $12.22.
Wipro surged 4.28% during the regular session before slipping 0.07% in after-hours trade to close at $1.9513.
European stock markets continued to advance on Friday.
Shares of automobile manufacturers, including BMW, Renault and Volkswagen, gained. Strong corporate results supported the markets.
Major Asian markets opened with substantial losses today before recovering some ground.
South Korea's Kospi fell 2% in early trading before narrowing its losses marginally.
Japan's Nikkei initially declined 2.25% but later recovered to trade just 0.25% lower.
Australia's benchmark index gained 0.10%.
China's Shanghai index declined 0.30%, while Taiwan's benchmark index fell 1.5%.
After a strong rally on the previous day, the Indian market recorded moderate gains on Friday.
However, the broader market did not participate in the advance, with midcap and smallcap indices declining.
The benchmark indices recorded substantial gains last week.
The Nifty rose 626 points, or 2.78%, while the Sensex surged 2,257 points, or 3.11%.
Midcap and smallcap indices registered marginal weekly losses.
The information technology index was the star performer of the week, surging 11.72%.
The market appears to have reassessed earlier predictions that Indian IT companies would be left behind because they were not making massive investments in AI.
Concerns over whether enormous investments in AI will generate adequate returns, along with the continuing demand for services provided by Indian IT companies, have brought investors back to the sector.
There are also growing concerns that Chinese competition in AI could adversely affect several major Western and Asian companies.
More stocks advanced than declined in the broader market on Friday.
On the BSE, 2,333 stocks gained while 2,053 declined. On the NSE, 2,131 stocks advanced and 1,422 fell.
Foreign investors were marginal net buyers on Friday, purchasing shares worth a net ₹1,165.92 crore in the cash market.
Domestic funds and institutions together recorded net sales of ₹3,661.28 crore.
Foreign investors have withdrawn ₹52,100 crore from the Indian market so far in October.
They withdrew ₹35,861 crore in September.
Total foreign investor withdrawals in 2026 have reached ₹3.12 lakh crore, compared with ₹1.66 lakh crore for the whole of 2025.
On Friday, the Sensex gained 413.66 points, or 0.56%, to close at 74,729.27.
The Nifty advanced 148.80 points, or 0.65%, to end at 23,146.15.
The Bank Nifty rose 33.50 points, or 0.06%, to close at 55,844.00.
The Nifty Midcap 100 declined 67.50 points, or 0.11%, to end at 59,129.75.
The Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped 1.90 points, or 0.01%, to close at 19,129.80.
The September-quarter results of major private sector banks indicate pressure on net interest margins.
This is largely because banks have mobilised Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), dollar deposits at higher interest rates.
At the same time, these deposits have helped banks achieve their highest deposit growth rate in a decade.
Despite these pressures, net profit growth has remained reasonably strong.
ICICI Bank reported a 17.7% increase in net interest income, while net profit rose 20.1% to ₹14,843 crore.
Its net interest margin declined from 4.30% to 4.18%. Net non-performing assets also declined.
HDFC Bank's net interest income increased 9.7%, but net profit rose only 4.7% to ₹19,510 crore.
Its net interest margin fell from 3.27% to 3.16%. Net non-performing assets also declined.
Axis Bank's net interest margin increased from 3.36% to 3.73%, while net profit surged 37.6%.
YES Bank recorded net profit growth of 65%.
IDBI Bank's net interest margin increased significantly, but net profit declined 39%.
Federal Bank's net interest margin improved from 3.06% to 3.32%.
The bank's net profit surged 45% to a record ₹1,386 crore.
HDFC Bank Deputy Managing Director Kaizad Bharucha has resigned and will leave the bank on 31 December.
His resignation comes after he was considered twice for the chief executive officer's position but was not selected.
Anup Bagchi, from ICICI Bank, will become HDFC Bank's CEO towards the end of this month, succeeding Sashidhar Jagdishan when he retires.
Uncertainty over interest rates is causing volatility in the gold market.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to indicate the direction of interest rates, the probability of a rate increase in October fell to 16.1%.
The probability of rates remaining unchanged rose to 83.9%.
However, the market sees a 74.1% probability of a rate increase in December.
Gold, which climbed to $4,200 an ounce last week before retreating, is expected to cross that level again this week.
On Friday, gold fell $5.70, or 0.14%, to close at $4,166.10 an ounce.
It rose 0.50% to $4,188 this morning before declining significantly.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold rose ₹160 per sovereign on Saturday to ₹1,08,280.
Silver prices rose marginally on Friday to close at $57.12 an ounce. Silver climbed to $57.47 this morning.
Platinum stood at $1,638, palladium at $1,105 and rhodium at $8,500.
Rubber prices remained unchanged in the international market.
In Kerala, however, prices continued to rise because of a shortage of rubber sheets.
In Bangkok, RSS-1 was quoted at $291.10 per quintal and RSS-3 at $287.70 per quintal.
In Kerala, RSS-4 climbed to ₹28,800 per quintal on Saturday.
Industrial metal prices rose on Friday.
Copper gained 0.38% to reach $14,594.50 a tonne.
Aluminium rose 0.58% to $3,011.85 a tonne.
Nickel, lead, tin and zinc also advanced.
Cocoa prices declined 3.19% to close at $5,645 a tonne.
Arabica coffee rose 3.66% to $3.056 a pound.
Palm oil gained 1.74% to reach 4,676 Malaysian ringgit a tonne.
The US Dollar Index fell significantly on Friday to close at 101.84.
It rose to 102.01 this morning before easing to 101.85.
The euro reached $1.1228 today, while the pound stood at $1.3332.
The Japanese yen was quoted at 157.74 to the dollar.
The Chinese yuan remained at 6.69 against the dollar.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined to 5.071% this morning.
This indicates that concerns over further interest rate increases have eased.
The Indian rupee strengthened for the fifth consecutive trading day.
The dollar fell by 10 paise to close at ₹94.96.
In the offshore forward market, the dollar touched ₹95.00 this morning before declining.
The Chinese yuan remained at ₹14.21, while the euro rose marginally to ₹106.71.
Crude oil prices crossed $110 a barrel on Friday before easing slightly.
Brent crude gained nearly 4% on Friday to close at $109.86 a barrel.
It declined to $108.10 this morning.
West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $100.68 a barrel.
Although the United States has withdrawn restrictions on Russian oil, no significant immediate change in crude oil prices is expected.
Cryptocurrencies fluctuated over the weekend.
Bitcoin climbed above $82,250 this morning.
Ether rose above $2,410, while Solana moved above $104.
