MARKETS, ACCORDING TO MATHEW: Nifty targets 25,000 as bulls surge

                                                            By TC Mathew

The market is riding a wave of optimism, with bulls pushing forward under the belief that there will be no corrections until the budget. Analysts advise caution, warning that overvaluation could lead to significant losses if corrections occur. Despite rising inflation, it is generally believed not to impact market momentum. The results of major corporations will primarily influence this week's market.

Bid on Trump's life impacts US markets

On Friday, the U.S. market saw substantial gains, buoyed by the perception that the assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump has bolstered his chances of victory. However, Asian markets have dipped.

The U.S. market experienced gains before closing lower. The Dow reached 40,257.24, the S&P hit 5655.50, and Nasdaq rose to 18,671.07. JP Morgan and Citigroup exceeded expectations with their second-quarter results, while Wells Fargo disappointed. Goldman Sachs is set to release its results today, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America tomorrow.

On Friday, the Dow Jones closed 247.15 points up at 40,000.90. The S&P rose 30.81 points to 5615.35, and Nasdaq climbed 115.04 points to 18,398.40.

U.S. futures indicate a small rise today, with the Dow up 0.18%, S&P up 0.17%, and Nasdaq up 0.26%.

Global markets

Asian markets are down today, with Japan's Nikkei dropping 2.5% and Chinese markets also declining. European markets surged over 1% on Friday, driven by tech stocks.

Indian markets

On Friday, Indian markets surged, with Sensex reaching 80,893.51 and Nifty hitting 24,592.20, both setting records. The IT index jumped 4.54%, led by TCS at 6.6% and Infosys at 3.41%. Realty and auto sectors declined. Oil India soared up to 18% following a Morgan Stanley rating upgrade, and Federal Bank shares hit a record 197.19 INR.

Sensex closed 622 points up at 80,519.34, while Nifty rose 186.20 points to 24,502.15. Bank Nifty edged up 0.02% to 52,278.90. The mid-cap index increased 0.04% to 51,173.80, and the small-cap index climbed 0.16% to 18,949.05.

Foreign investors bought Rs. 4021.60 crore worth of shares in the cash market on Friday, while domestic funds and institutions sold shares worth RS. 651.45 crore.

Closing above 24,500 has energised bulls, who now target 24,800-25,000. Nifty has support at 24,375 and 24,315 and resistance at 24,575 and 24,635 today.

Markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Muharram.

In derivatives, GIFT Nifty closed at 24,603 on Friday night, dipping below 24,600 this morning. Indian markets are expected to start with modest gains today, as indicated by these trends.

Gold declines

Gold prices dipped to $2411.60 per ounce over the weekend, falling to $2408 this morning. In Kerala, gold prices remained at 53,840 INR per sovereign on Saturday, with a decrease expected today. Silver is priced at $30.75 per ounce, with local prices at 99,000 INR per kilogram.

Currency, crude oil

The dollar index closed lower at 104.09 on Friday, rising to 104.29 this morning. The rupee improved on Friday, closing at 83.53 against the dollar, up three paise.

Crude oil prices are down, with Brent closing at $85.03 over the weekend and dropping to $84.94 this morning. WTI is at $82.13, and UAE's Murban crude is at $84.75.

Industrial metals, cryptocurrencies

Industrial metals also declined on Friday, with copper down 0.22% to $9672.35 per ton and aluminum down 0.37% to $2484.65 per ton.

Cryptocurrencies surged over the weekend, with Bitcoin reaching $60,350 and climbing above $61,350 this morning. Ether rose to $3280.

Inflation, industrial production

Retail inflation hit a four-month high of 5.08% in June, driven by a 9.36% increase in food prices. May saw retail inflation at 4.75% and food inflation at 8.7%. The spike is attributed to vegetables and pulses, with vegetable prices rising 293% and pulses 16.1%. Pulses prices have doubled for 13 months, and vegetables have risen over 10% for eight months.

The Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to cut rates soon, given the inflation data.

Industrial production grew by 5.9% in May, up from 5% in April, marking the highest rate in seven months. Electricity production surged 13.7%, while factory output growth slowed to 4.6% from 6.3% in the previous month.

HCL tech profit surge

HCL Technologies reported a 6.6% increase in first-quarter revenue, with net profit soaring 20.4% to Rs. 4,257 crore on revenue of Rs. 28,057 crore. The company announced an interim dividend of Rs. 12 per share.

Tax revenue growth

As of July 11, the government's direct tax revenue reached  Rs.5.74 lakh crore, up 19.54% from the same period last year. Corporate tax grew by 12.47% to Rs. 2.10 lakh crore and personal income tax surged 21.41% to Rs 3.46 lakh crore . Securities transaction tax rose from Rs. 7,285 crore to Rs. 16,634 crore due to rising stock prices.

This week's results 

• July 15: Jio Financial, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, Bank of Maharashtra, Angel One.
• July 16: Bajaj Auto, L&T Finance, CRISIL.
• July 17: Asian Paints, LT Mindtree, Elecon Engineering.
• July 18: Infosys, Havells, Polycab, Persistent Systems, L&T Tech Services, Dalmia Bharat, Ceat, South Indian Bank.
• July 19: Reliance, Wipro, JSW Steel, BPCL, Union Bank, ICICI Lombard.
• July 20: HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, JK Cement, Can Fin Homes.

Market indicators (July 12, 2024)

• Sensex 30: 80,519.34 (+0.78%)
• Nifty 50: 24,502.15 (+0.77%)
• Bank Nifty: 52,278.90 (+0.02%)
• Mid Cap 100: 57,173.80 (+0.04%)
• Small Cap 100: 18,949.05 (+0.16%)
• Dow Jones 30: 40,000.90 (+0.62%)
• S&P 500: 5615.35 (+0.55%)
• Nasdaq: 18,398.40 (+0.63%)
• Dollar ($): ₹83.53 (-₹0.03)
• Dollar Index: 104.09 (-0.35)
• Gold (ounce): $2411.60 (-$03.60)
• Gold (sovereign): ₹53,840 (₹00)
• Crude (Brent) Oil: $85.03 (-$00.58)