Global markets are likely to take cues today from US President Donald Trump’s televised address. His recent remarks that the war could end “within weeks” have already lifted sentiment.
For India, the key variable remains crude oil. Even if hostilities ease, prices may not cool meaningfully unless the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened. A sustained drop below $80 per barrel is seen as critical to ease domestic concerns.
Crude prices eased again on Wednesday, with Brent slipping towards $101 per barrel. The dollar index also declined, while gold prices moved higher.
Gift Nifty closed at 22,819 on Wednesday night, indicating a mildly positive start for domestic equities.
Wall Street closed with moderate gains on optimism that the Iran conflict may de-escalate soon.
Dow Jones rose 224.23 points (0.48 percent) to 46,565.74
S&P 500 gained 46.80 points (0.72 percent) to 6,575.32
Nasdaq jumped 250.32 points (1.16 percent) to 21,840.95
US futures, however, edged slightly lower this morning.
Asian markets opened higher, tracking global optimism:
Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi gained up to 1 percent
Australia’s index rose 0.40 percent
Hong Kong and Chinese markets also traded in the green
European markets had surged over 2.5 percent on Wednesday, marking a strong start to the new month.
Indian equities rallied sharply on Wednesday in line with global cues but pared gains later amid lingering uncertainties.
Despite optimism around a ceasefire, concerns persist that oil prices may remain elevated if shipping through Hormuz is not fully restored. Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling also capped the upside. Analysts note that even if the war ends soon, economic after-effects could linger for one to two quarters.
Sensex jumped 1,186.77 points (1.65 percent) to 73,134.32
Nifty 50 gained 348 points (1.56 percent) to 22,679.40
Bank Nifty rose 2.33 percent to 51,448.65
Midcap 100 climbed 2.22 percent; Smallcap 100 surged 3.33 percent
Market breadth remained strong, with a majority of stocks advancing across exchanges.
FIIs continued heavy selling, offloading ₹8,331.15 crore in the cash market, while domestic institutions bought ₹7,171.80 crore.
Gold rallied 1.92 percent to $4,759.50 per ounce and briefly crossed $4,800 this morning before easing. In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹1,080 to ₹1,12,160 per sovereign.
Industrial metals extended gains:
Copper rose 0.90 percent to $12,269.95 per tonne
Aluminium gained 0.83 percent to $3,512.91
Tin surged 4.79 percent; lead, zinc and nickel also advanced
Rubber prices climbed 1.40 percent in international markets. Cocoa, coffee and palm oil also moved higher, while tea remained steady.
The dollar index slipped to 99.55 amid easing geopolitical fears.
Euro strengthened to $1.1589
Pound rose to $1.3301
Yen appreciated to 158.71 per dollar
Yuan strengthened to 6.87 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.323 percent.
In the offshore NDF market, the rupee strengthened after recent measures by the Reserve Bank of India to curb speculative shorting. The currency hovered around 92.60–92.70 per dollar in early trade signals.
Brent crude fell to $101.16 per barrel on Wednesday, after briefly touching $99, but rebounded to around $105 in early trade today. WTI traded near $98.70, while Murban crude stood at $103.63.
India’s crude basket has cooled sharply from last week’s $159 to $124.85, offering some relief.
Cryptocurrencies moved higher on improving risk sentiment:
Bitcoin rose above $68,100
Ether climbed past $2,140
Solana crossed $81
Sensex: 73,134.32 (+1.65%)
Nifty 50: 22,679.40 (+1.56%)
Bank Nifty: 51,448.65 (+2.33%)
Midcap 100: 53,819.15 (+2.22%)
Smallcap 100: 15,709.80 (+3.33%)
Dow Jones: 46,565.74 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: 6,575.32 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq: 21,840.95 (+1.16%)
Dollar (₹): 94.83
Gold ($/oz): 4,759.50 (+89.70)
Gold (₹/sovereign): 1,12,160 (+1,080)
Brent crude ($/bbl): 101.16 (-2.81)
