Markets may open on a cautious but positive note today, driven by early signs that a resolution to the ongoing conflict could be within reach. However, conflicting headlines are capping optimism, keeping sentiment fragile.
Comments from Donald Trump that talks with Iran are progressing and could soon yield an agreement have eased market anxiety. The statement helped calm nerves after three weeks of sustained tension—equities rose and crude oil prices briefly cooled.
There is also talk of possible peace discussions in Pakistan later this week. But optimism has been dented by reports from Iran casting doubt on negotiations. Sporadic attacks continued even after ceasefire signals, nudging crude prices higher again. Markets are still broadly inclined to trust the US position, though the initial euphoria has clearly faded.
Asian markets trimmed early gains this morning, while US futures slipped sharply into the red.
GIFT Nifty ended Monday night at 23,215 and dipped to around 22,830 in early trade before recovering. This indicates the Nifty 50 could open over 350 points higher.
Wall Street rallied on Monday as war fears eased, though indices gave up part of their intraday gains:
Dow Jones Industrial Average up 631 points (1.38%) at 46,208.47
S&P 500 up 1.15% at 6,581
Nasdaq Composite up 1.38% at 21,946.76
This morning, US futures are lower:
Dow down ~210 points
S&P 500 down ~0.44 percent
Nasdaq down ~0.47 percent
European markets closed about 1 percent higher.
Asian indices opened strong but pared gains:
Nikkei 225 up about 1.5 percent initially
Kospi up around 2.7 percent before easing
Australia, Hong Kong and China also traded higher early on.
Indian equities saw a sharp sell-off on Monday, tracking global weakness amid war and rising oil prices. Market capitalisation eroded by ₹14.4 lakh-crore in a single session, taking total losses since the conflict began to ₹58 lakh-crore.
BSE Sensex fell 1,836.57 points (2.46%) to 72,696.39
Nifty 50 dropped 601.85 points (2.60%) to 22,512.65
Bank Nifty declined 3.12 percent
Broader markets were hit harder, with mid cap and small cap indices falling nearly 4 percent.
Foreign institutional investors remained aggressive sellers, offloading ₹10,414.23 crore, while domestic institutions bought ₹12,033.97 crore.
Precious metals remain highly volatile. Unlike typical war cycles, gold and silver had initially fallen sharply due to fears that rising crude would push central banks towards higher interest rates.
Gold had dropped 14.9 percent over three weeks
Silver plunged 27.6 percent
After ceasefire signals:
Gold rebounded to $4,408 per ounce
Silver to $69.26
This morning, both turned volatile again:
Gold slipped back to around $4,355
Silver eased to $67.80
In Kerala, 22-carat gold closed at ₹1,05,080 per sovereign after sharp intra-day swings.
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical signals.
Brent crude fell from $113 to $99.97 on Monday
Rebounded to around $103.21 this morning
WTI is near $91.40, while Middle East benchmarks remain elevated.
The dollar index slipped to 98.95 before edging up to 99.38.
Euro near $1.16
Pound at $1.34
Yen strengthened
US 10-year yields eased to 4.35 percent, signalling reduced rate-hike fears.
The rupee closed at 93.98 against the dollar, gaining 27 paise. With the dollar index softening and risk sentiment improving, the currency is expected to strengthen further today.
In offshore markets, the rupee moved to around 93.34, indicating a firmer opening.
Copper declined
Aluminium edged higher
Rubber softened slightly
Coffee and cocoa prices fell
Palm oil remained steady
Polymers and fertiliser prices also eased.
Cryptocurrencies moved higher:
Bitcoin above $70,700
Ethereum around $2,150
Solana below $91
Sensex: 72,696.39 (-2.46%)
Nifty 50: 22,512.65 (-2.60%)
Bank Nifty: 51,437.75 (-3.12%)
Midcap 100: 52,717.55 (-3.90%)
Smallcap 100: 15,098.70 (-3.94%)
Dow Jones: 46,208.47 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 6,581.00 (+1.15%)
Nasdaq: 21,946.76 (+1.38%)
Rupee: 93.98 (+0.27)
Gold (oz): $4,408.10
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,05,080
Brent crude: $99.97 (-$12.25)
