Commodity markets this week are likely to be driven by a few key global cues rather than broad data flow, especially with multiple holiday closures early in the week reducing liquidity. The primary focus will be on US inflation data (CPI and PCE) and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, as these will shape expectations around interest rates and the strength of the dollar—higher inflation could pressure metals, while softer data may support them.
In the energy segment, attention will remain on API/EIA crude oil inventories and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which could drive volatility in crude prices depending on supply trends. Additionally, China’s CPI and PPI data will be crucial for assessing demand conditions, impacting industrial and precious metals sentiment. Central bank decisions from RBI and RBNZ, along with global PMI data, will provide signals on economic activity and demand outlook. Overall, commodities may trade with a mixed to volatile bias—precious metals reacting primarily to US inflation and Fed signals, while crude oil remains sensitive to inventory data and demand expectations from China.
US inflation data (CPI, PCE) and FOMC minutes to guide rate outlook and dollar movement
API/EIA crude inventories and EIA outlook to influence oil prices
China’s CPI and PPI for demand signals in metals
Central bank decisions from RBI and RBNZ
Global PMI data for broader economic cues
Gold opened the week at $4,497.74, marginally above the previous close of $4,493.12, indicating a flat-to-slight gap-up of around 0.1 percent. Prices surged to a weekly high near $4,800.46 before facing resistance and pulling back. The metal touched a low of $4,418.17 and closed at $4,676.86, up 4.09 percent for the week.
From a technical perspective, the market is attempting to regain upward traction after a brief corrective phase. Immediate support is placed at $4,275, with deeper support at $3,890. Resistance is seen at $4,885 and $5,600.
Outlook for the week: Sustaining above $4,275 could support further upside. A move above $4,885 may strengthen bullish sentiment, while failure to hold levels could lead to consolidation.
Silver opened at $69.73 and rose to a high of $76.12 before witnessing profit booking. After touching a low of $67.71, it recovered to close at $73.01, gaining 4.69 percent.
Technically, the metal is rebounding within a broader corrective trend. Support is placed at $61.15 and $45.50, while resistance stands at $80.75 and $96.75.
Outlook for the week: Holding above $61.15 could keep the recovery intact. A sustained move above $80.75 may trigger further upside, though volatility may persist.
Brent crude oil opened at $107.75 and rose to a high near $109.99 before correcting. After dipping to $98.35, it recovered to close at $109.23, up 2.78 percent for the week.
The market is attempting to sustain above its breakout structure. Support is seen at $96.00 and $81.15, while resistance is placed at $119.70 and $138.00.
Outlook for the week: Holding above $96.00 may keep the bullish tone intact. A move above $119.70 could open further upside, while weakness may lead to mild correction.
Natural gas opened at $3 and briefly rose to $3.20 before declining. It slipped to a low of $2.82 and closed at $2.85, down 7.13 percent for the week.
Technically, the market remains weak within a declining structure. Support is placed at $2.71 and $2.07, while resistance stands at $3.50 and $4.11.
Outlook for the week: Sustaining below $3.50 may keep pressure on prices. A break below $2.71 could extend the decline, while any recovery may remain limited unless resistance is breached.
Note: Research support for this article was provided by: MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843)
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor and conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
