How many illegal Indians are there in the US? Estimates vary widely. For instance, the Pew Research Centre and the Centre for Migration Studies, of New York, say there were around seven lakh undocumented Indians were there in the US as of 2022.
But, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) puts the figure at 375,000, ranking India fifth among origin countries. According to the official US government data--from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)-- the figure was 2,20,000 in 2022.
The vast differences in estimates highlight the uncertainty surrounding the true size of the undocumented Indian population. Ifthe Pew and CMS estimates are accurate, nearly one in four Indian immigrants in the US is undocumented. Indian immigrants are one of the fastest-growing groups in the US, surging from six lakhs in 1990 to 32 lakhs in 2022.
The DHS estimated in 2022 that the undocumented Indian population in the US dropped 60% from its 2016 peak, falling from 5,60,000 to 2,20,000. How did the number of undocumented Indians drop so steeply from 2016 to 2022? The plausible explanations could be that some obtained legal status while others returned, particularly due to COVID-related hardships. But there was a surge in 2023 in the number of Indians at US borders, meaning the actual number could now be higher.
The US has two main land borders. The southern border along the states of Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas bordering Mexico sees the most migrant crossings. Then there's the US-Canada border spanning 11 states. Canada had become a more accessible entry point for Indians, with a shorter visitor visa processing times than US.
Where are the illegal Indians staying? A study quoted by a BBC News report shows that the states with the largest Indian immigrant populations-- California (1,12,000), Texas (61,000), New Jersey (55,000), New York (43,000) and Illinois (31,000)--also have the highest numbers of unauthorised Indian immigrants.
Indians make up a significant share of the total unauthorised population in Ohio (16%), Michigan (14%), New Jersey (12%) and Pennsylvania (11%).
Meanwhile, states where more than 20% of Indian immigrants are unauthorised include Tennessee, Indiana, Georgia, Wisconsin and California.
The US immigration system allows people who are detained at the border who fear persecution in their home countries to undergo credible "fear screenings". Those who pass can seek asylum in court, leading to a rise in asylum applications alongside rising border apprehensions.
Punjabi-speakers from India have dominated Indian asylum claims since 2001. Punjabi speakers also had the highest asylum approval rate (63%).
US data collected by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows Indian asylum requests in the US have skyrocketed. The requests jumped tenfold in just two years, rising from about 5,000 in 2021 to over 51,000 in 2023.
While this spike is most dramatic in the US, similar trends are seen in Canada, the UK and Australia, where Indians are among the largest asylum-seeking groups.
Most Indian asylum seekers are economic migrants, not from the country's poorest or conflict-hit regions. Indian Muslims and marginalised communities and people from conflict zones like the regions affected by Maoist violence and Kashmir, rarely seek asylum.
The arduous journey to the US--whether via Latin America or as "fake" students in Canada--are expensive, making it accessible only to those with assets to sell or pledge. Not surprisingly, Punjab and Gujarat--top origin states for unauthorised Indians--are among India's wealthier regions, where land values far exceed returns from farming. Punjab and Gujarat have long histories of emigration, with migrants heading not just to the US but also the UK, Canada and Australia.
Remittances--India received an estimated $120bn in 2023--fuel aspirations for a better life, driven not by poverty but "relative deprivation", as families seek to match the success of others abroad, the study says.
A parallel industry of agents and brokers in India has cashed in on this demand. Last week Narendra Modi said in the US that India would take back its nationals who were in the US illegally. He also said his administration would crack down on the "human trafficking ecosystem".
