India’s total healthcare expenditure could grow nearly seventeen times by 2047 to touch around ₹190 lakh crore, compared with the current ₹10–11 lakh crore, according to a new report by EY-Parthenon.
The report said the rise will be driven by an ageing population, a higher burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and delayed diagnosis across most age groups. If this trend holds, India’s health spend could reach 6–7% of GDP by 2047 — almost double the current 3.1%.
Healthcare spending includes in-patient and outpatient costs, preventive and administrative expenses, and patient transport. But even as spending surges, the sector may continue to deliver modest returns, the report noted.
EY-Parthenon estimates that incremental investment of up to ₹30 lakh crore will flow into healthcare by 2047. Yet, hospital and clinical services are expected to offer returns of only about 12–13% — lower than other capital-heavy industries such as life sciences, FMCG, retail and food and beverages.
“Healthcare delivery continues to sit at the lower end of the returns spectrum among capex-heavy sectors,” the report said.
The report highlighted a worrying trend — Indians are living longer but falling sick earlier. The onset of non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and cancers is occurring 3–10 years earlier than in high-income countries.
Environmental and lifestyle factors — rising air pollution, urban congestion, sedentary habits and chronic stress — are compounding the problem.
By 2047, the population aged 40 and above is projected to triple to about 820 million, roughly half of India’s total population. Around 350 million of them are likely to be 60 years or older, significantly increasing the number of hospital visits and chronic disease cases.
Hospitalisations could rise 2.4 times from current levels, the report said, suggesting a substantial strain on infrastructure and medical personnel.
With rising demand, India may need more than double its current hospital capacity. The number of hospital beds is projected to rise from around 2 million now to 4.8 million by 2047.
However, active disease management and preventive health interventions could lower this additional demand by nearly 1 million beds, the report added.
Despite the expansion, India’s healthcare industry has so far managed to keep core inflation under control at around 3–4%. Most of the increase in hospitalisation costs per person has been driven by more complex diseases and greater use of advanced treatments.
The EY-Parthenon study draws on research from 250 hospitals across 40 cities, along with surveys of more than 1,000 patients and consultations with 70 senior hospital executives, clinicians and investors.
