The southwest monsoon made an early onset over Kerala on Saturday, marking the earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
“Typically, the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8,” the IMD said. Its withdrawal usually begins around September 17 and concludes by October 15
In previous years, the monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on May 30 (2024), June 8 (2023), May 29 (2022) and June 1 (2020).
Meteorologists have cautioned against linking the timing of the monsoon’s onset with the overall rainfall during the season. “There is no direct correlation between the onset date and the seasonal rainfall over the country,” an IMD official told PTI. “The monsoon’s progress is shaped by a complex interaction of global, regional, and local climatic factors.”
In its April forecast, the IMD projected above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season and ruled out the influence of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with below-average monsoon rains in India.
The IMD has forecast isolated extremely heavy rainfall over Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka, and parts of Konkan and Goa. These areas are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rains accompanied by gusty winds of 40–50 kmph until May 29.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also predicted across Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh over the next five days.
A red alert has been issued for Maharashtra’s coastal districts, including Mumbai, which may experience thunderstorms with lightning, moderate rain, and wind gusts up to 50 kmph in isolated areas.
Goa is also under a red alert, with heavy to very heavy rainfall forecast until Sunday. The state government has urged the public to stay away from rivers and waterfalls as a precautionary measure. Several parts of coastal Goa have already reported intense rainfall in the past 24 hours.
The 2024 southwest monsoon concluded with an 8 percent surplus, the highest in the past four years — a positive trend IMD hopes will continue in 2025.
