An unexpected revival of ties between the United States and Pakistan, amid growing tensions between Washington and New Delhi, is shifting the regional balance.
Last week, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, alongside an unspecified separate “penalty” tax, citing India’s trade barriers and continued imports of Russian oil and weapons. Just hours later, Trump announced a “massive” oil exploration agreement with Pakistan—remarking that India might one day be forced to buy oil from its rival.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, said the move signalled a reversal in the US-India-Pakistan triangle.
“US ties with Pakistan have experienced an unexpected resurgence,” Kugelman told South China Morning Post, calling it a serious challenge for New Delhi after two decades of deepening strategic partnership with Washington.
“There have been crises and occasional tensions, but they’ve largely been manageable. This time, however, there’s been a consistent pattern of US messaging and action that’s deeply troubling for India.”
Trump has claimed credit 29 times for mediating the India-Pakistan ceasefire, according to local reports, and has repeatedly offered to broker the long-standing Kashmir dispute.
While Pakistan has welcomed Trump’s mediation efforts, India has firmly rejected any third-party involvement, insisting that the US had no role in securing the ceasefire agreement with Islamabad.
Signs of growing US-Pakistan bonhomie emerged publicly in mid-June, when Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was hosted at a private White House lunch. Munir later nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize for “preventing a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.”
Despite present tensions, Kugelman believes there remains significant common ground between India and the US.
“There’s ongoing cooperation in technology, energy, and higher education. Business-to-business ties are strong, with optimism among private sector leaders in both countries. So, we shouldn’t overstate the shift just yet—some return to the status quo is possible.”
Jon Danilowicz, a retired US diplomat, said Pakistan’s ability to quickly respond to the Trump administration’s transactional foreign policy approach may explain the renewed ties.
“Trump’s administration is focused on immediate concerns, and Pakistan has shown agility in meeting them. India, on the other hand, seeks a longer-term strategic engagement, which the current White House seems uninterested in—be it with India or long-standing allies in Europe and Asia,” Danilowicz said.
“For now, New Delhi seems to be holding the short end of the stick.”
In a recent social media post, Trump took direct aim at both India and Russia, claiming the two countries could “take their dead economies down together.”
Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian diplomat, dismissed comparisons between India and Pakistan, asserting that Washington understands the distinction.
“India follows its strategic interests autonomously and maintains diverse partnerships. That isn’t going to change,” he said. Tensions may ease in time, Trigunayat added, as Washington faces broader regional strategic challenges. “The core principle of international relations is that there are no permanent friends or enemies—only permanent interests. These relationships are ultimately transactional, sometimes with a strategic overlay.”
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official, described the pivot to Pakistan as a typical Trump move—one lacking a clear rationale.
“Pakistan remains a terror sponsor and a Chinese client state. Its trade with the US is barely five percent of the US-India total. Trump may be the only glue holding US-Pakistan ties together, since the two countries share little else,” Rubin said.
He added that India's involvement in Brics—seen by Trump as a threat to the US dollar—has also created friction. India, however, also plays a key role in the anti-China Quad and is a member of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Kugelman noted that India has been adept at balancing ties with rival blocs. Yet Washington’s pressure is testing that strategy.
“India has maintained strong ties with Russia despite the Ukraine war and has preserved relations with both Israel and Arab nations amid Middle East tensions. It has no intention of abandoning strategic autonomy, but working around Trump’s objections will be a significant challenge.”
