Russia is already taking steps to bypass the latest US sanctions so that India can continue importing large volumes of discounted Russian crude oil, The Guardian newspaper reported quoting industry sources.
Since the Ukraine war began, India has emerged as the world’s second-largest buyer of Russian oil, the report noted. Western sanctions forced Russia to sell crude at steep discounts, making it an attractive option for India, which depends on imports for nearly 90 percent of its oil needs.
Ties between the US and India have come under strain in recent months as Donald Trump has pushed New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil. Trump has accused India of indirectly funding Russia’s war effort and, in August, imposed a 25 percent tariff on Indian exports to the US over the issue. India rejected the pressure, saying its energy choices are a sovereign matter and cannot be dictated by third countries. Trade talks between the two sides have since stalled.
Last week, the Trump administration raised the stakes further, threatening tariffs as high as 500 percent and a pullback from some India-led global initiatives if Russian oil imports continue.
The US also tightened sanctions from the end of November, targeting companies and refineries buying oil from Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest exporters. These measures had an immediate impact, with India’s Russian oil imports falling from about 1.7 million barrels a day to nearly 1.2 million barrels a day in December.
However, analysts say the effect may be temporary. Four of India’s seven largest refineries are still largely dependent on Russian crude. Export data suggests Russia is already restructuring its supply chain, using new intermediary companies that are not directly linked to Rosneft or Lukoil, allowing buyers to avoid sanctions.
Experts believe this reorganisation could be completed within a few months. With Russian crude still $9–10 a barrel cheaper than oil from West Asia, the savings are hard to ignore. Analysts estimate India’s refiners could save nearly $4 billion a year, making a return to higher import levels likely despite continued US pressure.
