India and Pakistan are teetering on the brink of military confrontation after Islamabad closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and warned that any attempt by Delhi to interfere with water supplies governed by the Indus Water Treaty would be treated as an act of war.
The move marks a significant escalation in a series of tit-for-tat responses following the massacre of tourists in Pahalgam, carried out by militants. In response, India ordered the return of its citizens from Pakistan, while Islamabad expelled several Indian diplomats.
Tensions between the two countries have surged after 25 Indian tourists and one Nepalese national were killed on Tuesday – the deadliest attack on civilians in the restive region in years. India renewed its accusation that Pakistan fosters “cross-border terrorism” – a claim Islamabad firmly denies.
Tensions between the two countries have surged after 25 Indian tourists and one Nepalese national were killed on Tuesday – the deadliest attack on civilians in the restive region in years. India renewed its accusation that Pakistan fosters “cross-border terrorism” – a claim Islamabad firmly denies.
“Pakistan declares the Indian defence, naval, and air advisers in Islamabad persona non grata. They are directed to leave Pakistan immediately,” read a statement from the office of the Pakistan prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, issued after a rare meeting of the National Security Committee. The statement also confirmed that visas issued to Indian nationals would be revoked.
“Any threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty and the security of its people will be met with firm reciprocal measures across all domains,” it added, announcing the closure of borders, suspension of trade, and a ban on Indian-owned or operated airlines from using Pakistani airspace.
“India has taken irresponsible steps and levelled baseless allegations,” Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, told Dunya News television. Dar warned that “any kinetic step [military action] by India would be met with a tit-for-tat kinetic response”, recalling the brinkmanship of February 2019 when a suicide bombing in Kashmir nearly pushed the two nations to war.
The strongest rhetoric, however, was reserved for India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty – the world’s longest-standing water-sharing agreement, which plays a critical role in Pakistani agriculture.
“Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water to which Pakistan is entitled under the Indus Waters Treaty will be considered an act of war and will be met with full force across the entire spectrum of national power,” Islamabad said on Thursday.
India had suspended the treaty the previous day, while also downgrading diplomatic ties and accusing Pakistan once again of supporting terrorism across the border – an allegation Pakistan denies.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue those behind Tuesday’s massacre “to the ends of the Earth”.
“I say to the whole world: India will identify, track down, and punish every terrorist and their backers,” Modi declared in his first address following the attack.
India had already shut a key land border crossing and revoked a visa exemption scheme that allowed Pakistani citizens to enter.
On Thursday, police in Kashmir named three suspected militants believed to be behind the attack, offering rewards for information leading to their capture. Two of the suspects are reportedly Pakistani nationals.
Kashmir has been a longstanding flash point between India and Pakistan since their independence in 1947. Both countries claim the Himalayan region in full but control separate portions of it.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, divides the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries between the two nations. It had withstood previous wars and periods of high tension, making India’s decision to place it in abeyance particularly significant.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries had already been strained following Pakistan’s decision to expel India’s envoy and withdraw its own high commissioner after India revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status in 2019.
