Canada heads to the polls today in a parliamentary election that has rapidly transformed from a domestic referendum on leadership to a tense showdown with Donald Trump looming large over the campaign. The unexpected surge in nationalism, triggered by Trump's aggressive trade war rhetoric and threats to make Canada the "51st state," has reshaped the political landscape, giving a late boost to the ruling Liberal Party.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, sworn in on March 14 following Justin Trudeau’s resignation, called the early election seeking a fresh mandate amid escalating tensions with Washington. Carney’s campaign has centred on positioning himself as the leader best suited to confront Trump’s provocations, turning the US president into a central figure in the Canadian election in a way foreign policy has not influenced domestic voting since the 1988 free trade debate.
Carney has framed the US president’s actions as an "existential threat" to Canada's economy and sovereignty, accusing Trump of severing the historically close relationship between the two countries. He has pledged to diversify Canada’s exports away from the US, review the pending purchase of American F-35 fighter jets, and strengthen ties with Europe and other allies — a pointed move after making Paris and London, not Washington, his first foreign visits as prime minister.
Until earlier this year, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was seen as the clear favourite, with his party leading by 27 points in January. However, the latest Nanos poll shows the Liberals now ahead by four points nationally, and by six points in Ontario — home to 122 of the 343 seats in Parliament. A minority government remains a strong possibility, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Greens poised to play kingmaker roles.
Economic issues remain at the forefront of the campaign. Carney has emphasised his financial acumen, promising tax cuts for the middle class and major investments in green infrastructure. Poilievre, aligned ideologically with Trump’s populist conservatism, has offered a muted response to US provocations, focusing instead on criticising what he calls a "lost Liberal decade" and pledging tax cuts and a leaner federal government.
Despite calls to diversify trade, nearly 80% of Canada's exports still go to the US, a reality both Carney and Poilievre have acknowledged. Former foreign minister John Baird noted that even modest progress in shifting trade patterns would be considered a success.
With polls opening across the country, Canadians are not only choosing a prime minister today — they are also sending a message about how they intend to defend their nation's independence in an increasingly unpredictable world.
