Global markets are rising on hopes of a resolution to the trade war. The US President ending his standoff with the Fed brought relief to both the dollar and treasury bonds. After a sharp fall yesterday, gold prices rebounded over 1 percent this morning. The Indian market is showing a tendency towards consolidation today.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed at 24,267 on Wednesday night and dipped to 24,246 this morning before recovering. This points to a soft opening for Nifty.
The US, once aggressive in its trade war initiated by Trump, now seems to be seeking a face-saving exit. Trump said the US could negotiate significantly lower tariffs, moving away from the proposed 245 percent and 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods. However, China dismissed this approach, stating that this is not the correct way to initiate talks. The Trump administration is now intensifying efforts to bring China back to the negotiation table. Observers believe China is unlikely to squander this opportunity to assert dominance. Some believe China may only come to the table if the US lowers tariffs further than initially proposed.
Trump, who had repeatedly threatened to sack the Fed chair, was also forced to publicly state he had no such plans.
These two developments have helped financial markets recover from a potentially volatile situation. Investors returned to US equities and treasuries, pulling out from gold. The dollar index has also begun to rebound.
European markets closed over 1.8 percent higher yesterday, driven by optimism over a trade resolution.
The US market started with a strong rally on Wednesday but gave up most of the gains by the close. The Dow, which surged nearly 3 percent, ended the day with just a 1 percent rise. The S&P and Nasdaq followed similar patterns.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index gained 419.59 points (1.07 percent) to close at 39,606.57. The S&P 500 rose 88.10 points (1.67 percent) to 5,375.86. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 407.63 points (2.50percent) to close at 16,708.05.
US futures are trading higher this morning — Dow up 0.03 percent, S&P up 0.25 percent, and Nasdaq up 0.27 percent.
Asian markets recorded strong gains yesterday and are on a modest upward path today. Japan’s Nikkei rose by three-quarters of a percent, while the Hang Seng opened flat.
For the seventh consecutive day, Indian markets closed higher, with the Sensex crossing 80,000 for the first time in four months. Despite an initially strong start, the benchmark indices briefly slipped into the red before bouncing back to end slightly lower than their highs. The Sensex touched 80,255 and the Nifty 24,358 before closing with modest gains.
The notable aspect of yesterday’s session was the weakness in banks and financials, which had been on a consistent rise. The consumer durables index fell nearly 1 percent.
On Wednesday, the Nifty closed up 161.70 points (0.67 percent) at 24,328.95, while the Sensex rose 520.90 points (0.65 percent) to 80,116.49. The Bank Nifty fell 277.15 points (0.50 percent) to 55,370.05. The Midcap index surged 1.18 percent (643.95 points) to 55,041.10, and the Smallcap index gained 0.44 percent to 16,969.75.
IT stocks shone with significant gains. The Nifty IT index jumped 4.34 percent. Despite a weak Q1 performance, HCL Technologies surged 7.7 percent on growth hopes. Auto, pharma, metals, realty, and healthcare sectors also saw strong gains.
The advance-decline ratio remained in favour of the bulls in the broader market. On the BSE, 2,028 stocks rose while 1,949 fell. On the NSE, 1,516 advanced while 1,340 declined.
On the NSE, 50 stocks hit 52-week highs while seven hit lows. 124 stocks touched upper circuits, while 41 hit lower circuits.
Foreign investors remained net buyers yesterday, purchasing ₹3,332.93 crore worth of shares in the cash segment. Domestic funds sold ₹1,234.46 crore.
The market ended bullish, but charts suggest potential for profit-taking and consolidation. Resistance is expected around the 24,500–24,550 zone. Support for Nifty is seen at 24,175 and 24,025. Resistance may be encountered at 24,360 and 24,500.
Tata Consumer Products reported a 17.3 percent increase in revenue, with net profit surging 59.2 percent to ₹344.9 crore.
L&T Mindtree saw a 1.1 percent rise in revenue and a 3.97 percent increase in profit. Revenue in dollar terms declined 0.7 percent. Bajaj Housing Finance’s revenue rose 25.6 percent, and profit jumped 53.8 percent. Thyrocare Technologies reported a 21.3 percent increase in revenue and a 22 percent rise in profit.
Supreme Petrochem’s revenue declined 1.5 percent, and profit fell 18.7 percent. Can Fin Homes posted a 6.3 percent rise in net interest income and an 11.6 percent increase in profit. Rallis India’s revenue dipped 1.6 percent, and losses widened from ₹21 crore to ₹32 crore. Tamilnad Mercantile Bank’s net interest income declined 0.2 percent, but net profit rose 15.3 percent to ₹291.9 crore.
Hindustan Unilever, Nestlé, Tech Mahindra, Cyient, L&T Technology Services, Mphasis, Persistent, Axis Bank, SBI Life, ACC, Adani Energy, Laurus Labs, Macrotech Developers, and Supreme Industries will announce their Q4 results today.
Gold saw a rapid fall yesterday but rebounded this morning. From a recent high of $3,507 per ounce, it dropped to $3,279 — a 6.5 percent fall in just two days. Bulls expect some consolidation after this dip, with a mid-term rebound likely. Gold closed at $3,289.70 per ounce yesterday and rose 1.35percent to $3,335 this morning.
In Kerala, gold prices dropped sharply by ₹2,200 per sovereign on Thursday, after having risen the previous day. The price settled at ₹72,120 per sovereign — the largest single-day drop on record.
In global markets, rubber rose 1.14 percent to 168.80 cents per kg. Cocoa dropped 1.08 percent to $9,144.85, while coffee rose 1.80 percent. Palm oil prices climbed 1.71 percent.
The dollar index rose nearly 1 percent on Wednesday to close at 99.84, but slipped slightly to 99.77 this morning. The euro dropped to $1.132, while the pound declined to $1.326. The Japanese yen weakened to 143.28 per dollar. US treasury yields rose to 4.37 percent as bond prices declined slightly. The rupee slipped slightly on Wednesday, with the dollar gaining 24 paise to settle at ₹85.46. China’s currency strengthened to 7.29 yuan per dollar.
Crude oil prices continue to fall as reports suggest the US may announce lower tariffs on Chinese goods.
Cryptocurrencies remain elevated. Speculation is rife that Bitcoin may cross $95,000. It is currently trading near $93,750. Ether has climbed to $1,800.
