US secretary of state Mark Rubio held telephonic conversations with both India and Pakistan. US vice-president J.D. Vance confirmed that efforts to prevent escalation will continue. Pakistan has officially requested US mediation. Over the past two days, statements from both countries have been noticeably less provocative.
There are signs that the path is opening up for US-China talks aimed at ending the trade war. The Chinese ministry of commerce spokesperson noted that while the US had extended multiple invitations, China is still deliberating. Previously, China had denied receiving any official invitation. Importantly, China appears to be shifting from its earlier stance that talks would occur only after the unilateral tariffs were revoked. This shift suggests that backchannel negotiations may lead to formal agreements. Consequently, US futures rebounded last night, and Asian markets saw gains.
These developments may offset the pessimism that followed the contraction in US GDP. Market responses have already begun reflecting this shift.
In derivatives markets, Gift Nifty closed at 24,362 on Wednesday night and rose to 24,434 this morning, indicating a positive opening for the Nifty today.
European markets closed slightly higher on Wednesday. However, news of the US GDP contraction had weakened overall sentiment. UBS and Barclays posted results exceeding expectations, while Volkswagen's profit dropped 37 percent and Stellantis withdrew its growth guidance for the year.
On Wednesday, US markets recovered from significant lows to close with marginal gains. The Nasdaq ended nearly flat. The 0.3 percent decline in Q1 US GDP initially dragged the Dow Jones down by about 700 points. Strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms later helped lift both the Dow and S&P 500.
Over the past three years, the US GDP has seen an average annual growth of 3 percent. It grew by 2.4 percent in the October–December quarter but contracted by 0.3 percent in January–March. This was due to two main factors: a surge in imports ahead of higher tariffs, which widened the trade deficit, and a cut in US defence spending.
Today, the US labour data will be released. Unemployment benefit claims had risen sharply last week. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index rose 141.74 points (0.35%) to close at 40,669.36. The S&P 500 gained 8.23 points (0.15%) to finish at 5,569.06. The Nasdaq dipped 14.98 points (0.09%) to 17,446.34.
On Thursday, US markets closed with strong gains, driven by better-than-expected results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms. The Dow rose 83.60 points (0.21%) to 40,752.96, the S&P 500 added 35.08 points (0.63%) to 5,604.14, and the Nasdaq surged 264.40 points (1.52%) to 17,710.74.
Apple reported better-than-expected results post-market, but lower revenue and profit guidance led to a 4 percent drop in after-hours trading. Amazon also issued conservative forecasts, resulting in a 2 percent share decline.
With the US-China trade talks looking more likely, US futures surged this morning. The Dow rose 0.75 percent, S&P 500 increased 0.63 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.37 percent.
Asian markets also moved higher today, responding to China’s statement that it is reviewing the US invitation. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.5 percent. Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday.
The Indian market was volatile on Wednesday. After a weak opening and further decline, the market staged a recovery but failed to sustain gains and ended slightly lower. Sectors like realty, healthcare, pharma, and auto showed strength, while PSU banks, media, and consumer durables dragged.
The Nifty fell 1.75 points (0.01%) to close at 24,334.20. The Sensex dropped 46.14 points (0.06%) to 80,242.24. The Bank Nifty declined 304.10 points (0.55%) to 55,087.15. The Midcap 100 fell 463.05 points (0.85%) to 54,124.90, and the Smallcap 100 dropped 1.73 percent to 16,448.85.
Market breadth remained negative. On the BSE, 963 stocks advanced while 2,967 declined. On the NSE, 631 stocks gained and 2,228 declined.
Twenty-four stocks on the NSE hit 52-week highs while 30 touched 52-week lows. Thirty-seven stocks hit upper circuits, and 81 hit lower circuits.
Foreign institutional investors reduced their buying, recording a net purchase of just ₹50.57 crore in the cash market. Domestic funds bought shares worth ₹1,792.15 crore.
Border tensions may continue to keep the market in a tight range. Nifty support is seen at 24,230 and 24,185. Resistance is expected at 24,390 and 24,500.
Adani Enterprises: Q4 revenue fell 7.6 percent, but profit rose over eight-fold to ₹3,844.9 crore due to a one-time gain of ₹3,945.7 crore. Board approved capital raise of ₹15,000 crore.
Adani Ports: Revenue up 23.1 percent; profit surged 47.8 percent.
Federal Bank: Net interest income up 8.3 percent; net profit rose 13.7 percent to ₹1,030.2 crore. Gross NPA at 1.84 percent; net NPA at 0.44 percent.
Indus Towers: Revenue rose 7.4 percent, but profit fell 4 percent.
Zomato (renamed Eternal): Revenue jumped 63.8 percent; profit fell 77.7 percent.
Jindal Steel and Power: Revenue fell 2.3 percent, with a one-time loss of ₹1,229.5 crore pushing the company into the red.
Sundaram Fasteners: Revenue rose 4.4 percent, but profit declined 6.8 percent.
Godrej Agrovet: Despite a 0.3 percent revenue drop, profit rose 23.9 percent.
LG Balakrishnan: Q4 revenue rose 10.3 percent; profit jumped 23.8 percent.
Paras Defence & Space Technologies: Revenue up 35.8 percent; profit surged 97.8 percent.
Bandhan Bank: Net interest income fell 3.6 percent, but profit rose sixfold. Lower provisioning by ₹514 crore led to a profit increase of over ₹250 crore. Gross NPA rose to 4.71 percent; net NPA remained at 1.28 percent.
Marico, Godrej Properties, Ather Industries, City Union Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, V-Mart Retail, RR Kabel, Subex, Sanofi Consumer Health.
SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Indian Bank, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank, Avenue Supermarts, Netweb Technologies.
Gold continued its downward trend. On Wednesday, it fell $30.50 to close at $3,289.20/oz, and dropped another $46.90 on Thursday to $3,242.30. This morning, it declined further to $3,235.
In Kerala, gold held steady at ₹71,840 per sovereign on Wednesday (Akshaya Tritiya), then fell ₹1,640 to ₹70,200 on Thursday. Prices may decline further, depending on dollar-rupee exchange rates.
The US dollar index, which stood at 99.64 on Wednesday, closed at 100.25 on Thursday and climbed further to 100.33 this morning.
The ero weakened to $1.1278, the pound to $1.3275, and the Japanese yen slipped to 145.87 per US dollar.
US Treasury bond prices fell, with the yield on 10-year bonds rising to 4.242 percent from a low of 4.126 percent.
The Indian rupee saw a strong rally on Wednesday, gaining 0.9 percent against the Dollar. The dollar fell 77 paise to close at ₹84.49. China’s currency remained steady at 7.27 yuan per US dollar.
Crude oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, with Brent falling more than 5 percent to $59.30 per barrel. However, prices bounced back after the US announced additional sanctions on Iran, closing at $61.87. This morning, Brent rose further to $62.47.
Cryptocurrencies continue to trade with high volatility at elevated levels. Bitcoin crossed $97,200 before pulling back slightly. Ether is trading near $1,850.
