Geopolitical tensions in West Asia show little fundamental change, but markets appear less alarmed for now. Iran did not follow through on threats to attack US vessels, and while the risk persists, crude oil prices have edged lower this morning after Monday’s sharp spike.
US efforts to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have heightened tensions, though a full-scale conflict has not materialised. As a result, crude’s surge remained below 6 percent. Diplomatic back channels between the US and Iran continue, including the reported release of crew from a seized Iranian vessel via Pakistan. However, actions by Iran’s elite forces have kept nerves on edge, including strikes targeting the UAE and a missile incident involving a South Korean vessel. Iran’s foreign minister indicated that talks could resume.
GIFT Nifty closed at 24,077.50 on Monday night and slipped to around 24,013 in early trade, indicating a likely negative opening for the Nifty today.
Wall Street ended lower on fears that tensions around Hormuz could escalate and push oil prices higher again.
Dow Jones fell 557.37 points (1.13 percent) to 48,941.90
S&P 500 dropped 29.37 points (0.41 percent) to 7,200.75
Nasdaq declined 46.64 points (0.19 percent) to 25,067.80
US futures, however, edged higher this morning, suggesting some stabilisation:
Dow futures up 21 points (0.04 percent)
S&P 500 futures up 0.10 percent
Nasdaq futures up 0.17 percent
Indian stocks listed in New York traded mixed. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Wipro saw declines in regular trade but showed mild recovery in after-hours movement.
European markets fell over 1 percent on Monday, weighed by Hormuz concerns and renewed US tariff threats on automobiles. The US president has warned of reimposing a 25 percent tariff on European cars.
Asian markets are mostly lower today. Japan and South Korea are shut for holidays. Australia’s index fell 0.75 percent, while Hong Kong declined 1.42 percent.
Indian equities opened strong on optimism over BJP’s electoral gains but lost steam through the day. The Sensex touched 77,910.75 and the Nifty 24,290 before retreating, dragged by rising crude prices, rupee weakness, and geopolitical worries. IT, banking and media stocks weighed on the market, while realty, metals and healthcare performed well.
Foreign institutional investors remained heavy sellers, offloading ₹2,835.62 crore in the cash market, while domestic institutions bought ₹4,764.16 crore.
At close on Monday:
Sensex rose 355.90 points (0.46 percent) to 77,269.40
Nifty gained 121.75 points (0.51 percent) to 24,119.30
Bank Nifty edged up 0.03 percent to 54,878.50
Midcap 100 rose 0.63 percent
Smallcap 100 gained 0.70 percent
Broader market breadth remained positive.
Tata Technologies posted modest growth, with net profit up 8.1 percent but margins under slight pressure
Petronet LNG saw improved profitability despite lower revenue
Manappuram Finance swung from a ₹191 crore loss to ₹404 crore profit; net interest income rose 2.6 percent
Jindal Stainless reported 11 percent revenue growth and a 41 percent jump in profit
Sobha’s revenue surged 60.2 percent, with profit up 124 percent to ₹92 crore
LG Balakrishnan & Bros saw revenue rise 21.8 percent, but profit fell 17 percent
Jyothy Labs posted 7.72 percent revenue growth, while profit declined 12.3 percent
Gold fell 2 percent on Monday to $4,523.50 per ounce amid easing immediate fears, but rebounded to around $4,542 this morning.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold dropped ₹960 per sovereign to ₹1,09,720.
Silver fell 3.5 percent to $72.85 per ounce and eased further to $72.67 this morning.
Platinum stands at $1,958, palladium at $1,472, and rhodium at $9,500.
Cocoa prices jumped 8.57 percent to $3,904 per tonne, the highest since February. Prices have risen 20 percent over the past month amid concerns over supply disruptions in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to drought and weather risks, including El Niño. Fertiliser cost pressures are also adding to supply concerns.
The US dollar index rose to 98.37 and moved up to 98.51 this morning.
Euro slipped to $1.1687
Pound declined to $1.3523
Yen weakened to 157.21 per dollar
Chinese yuan held at 6.83 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields surged to 4.432 percent, while 30-year yields crossed 5 percent, signalling expectations of higher interest rates.
The rupee extended losses amid rising crude prices and geopolitical risks. The dollar touched ₹95.33 before closing at ₹95.09. In the offshore NDF market, it rose again to ₹95.32 this morning.
Reports suggest the Reserve Bank of India may consider a special dollar deposit scheme to attract NRI inflows, similar to measures used in 2013, to stabilise the currency amid widening current account pressures and persistent foreign outflows.
Crude oil, which surged on Monday amid Hormuz fears, has eased slightly. Brent rose 6.5 percent to close at $114.44 per barrel but slipped to $113.59 this morning. WTI declined to $104.74, while UAE’s Murban crude stands at $107.30. India’s crude basket was last recorded at $118.70.
Cryptocurrencies have regained momentum as fears of immediate conflict receded. Bitcoin crossed $80,000 and is trading around $80,500. Ether is above $2,370, while Solana is holding above $84.6.
(May 4, Monday)
Sensex: 77,269.40 (+0.46 percent)
Nifty 50: 24,119.30 (+0.51 percent)
Bank Nifty: 54,878.50 (+0.03 percent)
Midcap 100: 60,159.75 (+0.63 percent)
Smallcap 100: 18,132.50 (+0.70 percent)
Dow Jones: 48,941.90 (-1.13 percent)
S&P 500: 7,200.75 (-0.41 percent)
Nasdaq: 25,067.80 (-0.19 percent)
Dollar: ₹95.09 (+₹0.18)
Gold ($/oz): 4,523.50 (-91.50)
Gold (per sovereign): ₹1,09,720 (-₹960)
Brent crude: $114.44 (+6.27)
