Weekend optimism faded as unexpected moves disrupted market expectations, creating fresh uncertainty likely to be reflected in today’s trading.
A decision by OPEC and its allies to significantly boost crude oil output sent prices down by nearly 5%, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel.
The dollar index slipped below 100, bolstered by a stronger euro and other major currencies. Gold rebounded sharply on the back of the dollar’s decline.
US President Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing tariffs on foreign films suggested the ongoing trade war will not end soon. Talks between the US and China have yet to begin formally.
The US Federal Reserve Board is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Despite renewed threats from Trump, markets widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady. On Sunday, Trump also said he would not dismiss Fed chairman Jerome Powell.
A Supreme Court verdict barring the transfer of companies at undervalued prices without regulatory approval has opened the door to new legal uncertainties. The government may seek an amendment or file a review petition.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed Friday night at 24,532. It opened at 24,538 this morning and dipped to 24,505, signalling a possibly positive start for the Nifty today.
On Friday, European markets closed higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX jumped 2.62 percent, while France’s CAC gained 2.33 percent, supported by the prospect of US-China trade talks.
US markets also rallied. The S&P 500 rose for the ninth consecutive day—its longest streak since November 2004—on optimism over potential trade deals with multiple countries, including China.
The Dow Jones closed up 564.47 points (1.39 percent) at 41,317.43. The S&P 500 added 82.53 points (1.47 percent) to finish at 5,686.67. The Nasdaq surged 266.99 points (1.51 percent) to 17,977.73.
However, US futures were lower this morning. Dow futures fell 0.57 percent, S&P 500 dropped 0.60 percent, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.63 percent, showing no sign of a weekend rally carryover.
Most Asian markets, including Japan and China, are closed for holidays today. Australia’s market dipped 0.40 percent following the re-election of the Labor Party.
The Indian market remained volatile on Friday. After a strong start and further gains, indices sharply retreated before ending with marginal gains. The Sensex touched a high of 81,177.93, while the Nifty climbed to 24,589.15. Gains were seen in oil & gas, media, IT, PSU banks and financials. Losses were reported in consumer durables, pharma, metals, healthcare, realty, FMCG, and auto.
The Nifty ended Friday up 12.50 points (0.05 percent) at 24,346.70. The Sensex closed 259.75 points higher (0.32 percent) at 80,501.99.
Analysts expect the market to remain range-bound in the near term. While the broader trend is bullish with potential for record highs, near-term enthusiasm appears limited. Nifty has support at 24,260 and 24,175, with resistance likely around 24,525 and 24,600.
SBI reported a 2.7 percent rise in net interest income in Q4, but net profit declined 9.9 percent to ₹18,643 crore. Higher provisioning—up 57 percent to ₹12,643 crore—offset income gains. The bank saw 12 percent deposit growth and 9.5 percent loan growth. Gross NPA fell to 1.82 percent and net NPA to 0.47 percent. SBI plans to raise ₹25,000 crore in capital this year.
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s profit declined 14.1 percent due to a 244.8 percent surge in provisions to ₹909.4 crore. Net interest income rose 5.4 percent. Gross NPA fell to 1.42 percent, and net NPA to 0.31 percent.
Mahindra & Mahindra, Indian Hotels, Zee Media, Bombay Dyeing, Coforge, Signity Technologies, Computer Age Management, Capri Global, and Jammu & Kashmir Bank are among the companies scheduled to announce their Q4 results today.
International gold prices fell 2.5 percent last week, dropping $106 over three days after an early-week rise. The week ended with a loss of $82, closing Friday at $3,241.30 per ounce. However, gold surged to $3,267 this morning, up 0.80 percent. A weakening dollar and expectations that the Fed will not cut rates supported the rebound. Concerns that the trade war won’t end soon also boosted safe-haven demand.
In Kerala, post-Akshaya Tritiya, gold prices fell by ₹1,800 per sovereign to ₹70,040.
International rubber prices held steady at 169.00 cents per kg. Cocoa climbed 1.85 percent to USD 8,930.54, while coffee fell 0.85 percent and palm oil declined 0.77 percent.
The dollar index climbed to 100.33 on Friday but closed at 100.03, then dipped further to 99.69 this morning.
The euro rose to 1.1337 against the dollar; the pound climbed to 1.3288; the yen strengthened to 144.21 per dollar.
The rupee initially strengthened to 83.76 per dollar on Friday morning but later weakened as the RBI intervened, reportedly buying around $300 million. The rupee closed nine paise lower at 84.58. The Chinese yuan remained steady at 7.27 per dollar.
OPEC+ shocked markets on Saturday by deciding to raise crude output by 411,000 barrels per day in June—an unexpected move both in timing and scale—sending oil prices down nearly five percent.
While lower prices will affect all producers, US shale companies are expected to suffer the most. Many operate on thin margins and may be forced to scale back or shut operations if losses persist, according to OPEC estimates.
Last week saw oil prices swing sharply. Brent crude fell more than five percent to $59.30 before rebounding on renewed US sanctions against Iran to $ 62.47. However, prices slid again in Sunday trading: Brent dropped to $58.90 and WTI to $55.80. UAE’s Murban crude fell to $58.57. This morning, Brent is trading at $59.26, and WTI at $56.18.
