Geopolitical tensions have once again cast a shadow over financial markets, with mounting anxiety following reports of escalating conflict along the India–Pakistan border.
Markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty as border skirmishes between India and Pakistan raise the possibility of full-scale war. Pakistan's defence minister claimed India could launch an attack within 36 hours. Reports suggest increased Pakistani troop deployment near Punjab, Jammu, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India, meanwhile, has closed 50 tourist spots in Kashmir.
Adding to the confusion, US President Donald Trump said a trade deal with India is expected soon. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a deal had been finalised with one country, but no details have been disclosed regarding India's commitments.
Gift Nifty closed at 24,465 on Tuesday night and fell to 24,345 by Wednesday morning, indicating a weak opening for Indian equities.
Indian markets will remain closed on Thursday due to May Day.
European markets closed higher on Tuesday. However, carmakers Volkswagen and Porsche fell on disappointing earnings guidance. HSBC and Deutsche Bank reported earnings well above expectations. Crude oil's price drop, however, slashed BP’s profit by 49 percent.
US markets closed higher on hopes of progress in international trade talks. Lutnick mentioned a deal with one unnamed nation and said discussions are underway with 18 others. Trump’s tariff relief on vehicles with 85 percent US-made components provided a boost to automakers. The Dow and S&P extended their gains for a sixth straight day.
The US is set to release its Q1 GDP data on Thursday. Many Wall Street economists anticipate a contraction. A surge in March imports, driven by tariff concerns, widened the trade deficit to a record 16.2 billion dollars — a potential drag on GDP. Forecasts suggest GDP growth may shrink to between 1.5 percent and 0.2 percent.
Meanwhile, US jobs data for March fell short, with only 7.19 million new jobs added compared to the 7.5 million expected.
Dow Jones closed 300.03 points (0.75%) higher at 40,527.62
S&P 500 rose 32.08 points (0.58%) to 5560.83
Nasdaq climbed 95.18 points (0.55%) to 17,461.32
However, US futures are slightly down Wednesday morning: Dow -0.15%, S&P -0.42%, Nasdaq -0.58%.
Asian markets remain weak. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.25%, while Hong Kong and Shanghai indices declined.
Indian equities showed signs of returning to reality on Tuesday. After opening strong, markets gave up all gains by the end of the session. IT and Reliance supported the main indices, which otherwise remained flat.
All sectors except IT, consumer durables, and oil & gas ended in the red.
Nifty rose 7.45 points (0.03%) to close at 24,335.95
Sensex added 70.01 points (0.09%) to end at 80,288.38
Bank Nifty dropped 41.55 points (0.07%) to 55,391.25
Midcap 100 gained 147.70 points (0.27%) to 54,587.95
Smallcap 100 rose 0.37% to 16,738.70
BSE: 1,767 stocks advanced, 2,168 declined
NSE: 1,365 gained, 1,478 fell
52-week high: 33 stocks
52-week low: 17 stocks
Upper circuit: 78 stocks
Lower circuit: 46 stocks
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers on Tuesday, purchasing ₹2,385.61 crore worth of equities. Domestic funds bought ₹1,369.19 crore. In the past 10 sessions, FIIs have invested ₹37,360 crore in Indian equities.
Chartists believe if Nifty stays above 24,300, it may attempt a rally towards 24,550–24,850. Support is seen at 24,300 and 24,255; resistance at 24,420 and 24,470.
Bajaj Finance announced a 4-for-1 bonus issue following better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock will also undergo a face value split from ₹2 to ₹1.
IndusInd Bank CEO Sumant Kathpalia has resigned. He maintained a strong relationship with the Hinduja promoter family during his tenure. In FY24, he sold 950,000 shares worth ₹134 crore. The deputy CEO, who resigned Monday, had also sold shares worth ₹80 crore.
V-Mart Retail will announce a bonus issue on 2 May.
Key companies announcing results today include: Indian Oil Corporation, Vedanta, Federal Bank, Bandhan Bank, Equitas, Ujjivan, Adani Power, Indus Towers, Ajanta Pharma, Crisil, Exide, Godrej Agrovet, Greaves Cotton, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Infra, KSB, Paras Defence, Sona BLW, and Varun Beverages.
Results due tomorrow: Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, RailTel, Home First Finance.
Gold prices continue to fall, albeit at a slower pace.
Tuesday close: $3,319.70/oz, down $25.10
Wednesday morning range: $3,306 – $3,328/oz
In Kerala, gold rose ₹320 on Tuesday to ₹71,840 per sovereign. A decline is expected today.
The dollar index edged up to 99.24 on Tuesday, before slipping slightly to 99.23 Wednesday morning. Euro trades at $1.1387. Pound at $1.3403. Yen at 142.27 per dollar. US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.162 percent.
The rupee weakened on Tuesday, recovering from an intraday low of ₹84.96 to close at ₹85.26. China’s yuan strengthened from 7.30 to 7.27 against the dollar.
Crude oil prices continue to fall. Brent crude closed over $1.50 lower at $64.25; early Wednesday at $64.22. WTI crude at $60.25. Murban crude (UAE) at $64.51
Cryptocurrencies remain volatile but elevated. Bitcoin climbed above $95,000 before slipping to $94,500. Ethereum holds above $1,800
