India faces renewed tariff threats from the United States over its continued imports of Russian crude, with President Donald Trump reiterating his warning that Indian exports could face punitive duties. Though previous threats had not materialised into specific penalties, Trump’s latest social media post has once again raised concerns. He did not specify the timing or quantum of the proposed tariffs.
India dismissed the criticism as baseless and reiterated that it has no plans to halt Russian oil imports. However, officials hinted that rising Russian prices could naturally reduce import volumes. Any coordinated withdrawal by India and China could trigger a sharp spike in global oil prices.
New Delhi is perplexed by Trump’s hostility. A potential cooling of Indo-US ties is being viewed as a negative signal for financial markets. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers for over two weeks, and worsening diplomatic ties may further hurt capital inflows.
In the derivatives segment, GIFT Nifty closed Monday night at 24,706.50 and opened slightly higher on Tuesday morning at 24,715, climbing to 24,745. This points to a flat to slightly negative start for Indian equities today.
European stocks rallied on Monday despite indications from the European Union that compliance with the US-led trade deal remains uncertain. The EU noted it lacked the authority to mandate member states to invest in US assets or purchase American energy. Talks to reduce tariffs by 15 percent have yielded little, and retaliatory measures are on the table if progress stalls.
Switzerland’s stock market, hit with a 39 percent tariff, fell sharply before recovering to end marginally lower. The recovery was aided by the Swiss government’s active efforts to engage the US in trade talks.
US stocks recovered most of Friday’s losses, although analysts cautioned that August and September tend to be historically weak months. August has been the worst-performing month for the Dow since 1988, while September typically ranks worst for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Dow Jones rose 585.06 points (1.34%) to close at 44,173.64
S&P 500 gained 91.93 points (1.47%) to end at 6,329.94
Nasdaq Composite surged 403.45 points (1.95%) to finish at 21,053.58
Futures were also in the green, with Dow up 0.16 percent, S&P 0.20 percent, and Nasdaq 0.24 percent. Defence-tech firm Palantir jumped 4 percent after posting over $1 billion in Q2 revenue. However, Hims & Hers Health fell 13 percent after its revenue missed estimates.
Asian markets opened higher on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 1 percent in early trade before settling at a 0.5 percent gain. South Korea’s market surged 2 percent following inflation data in line with expectations. Australian equities slipped 1 percent.
India attempted to rebound from last week’s losses, seemingly shrugging off Trump’s tariff threats. All major sectors except banking, finance and FMCG ended in the green, with metals, real estate, IT, auto and consumer durables leading the rally.
Nifty 50 rose 157.40 points (0.64%) to close at 24,722.75
Sensex gained 418.81 points (0.52%) to end at 81,018.72
Bank Nifty added just 1.75 points to finish at 55,619.35
Nifty Midcap 100 surged 795.20 points (1.40%) to 57,432.35
Nifty Smallcap 100 jumped 225.20 points (1.27%) to 17,893.40
Market breadth remained positive with 2,216 stocks advancing and 1,931 declining on the BSE. On the NSE, 1,828 stocks advanced while 1,166 declined. As many as 48 stocks hit 52-week highs and 70 touched 52-week lows.
FPIs were net sellers in the cash segment, offloading ₹2,566.51 crore worth of equities, while domestic institutions bought shares worth ₹4,386.29 crore.
Technically, Nifty remains under bearish pressure unless it breaks above the short- and medium-term moving averages. Resistance is expected at 24,745–24,785, while support lies at 24,490–24,600.
Gold prices rose on hopes that the US Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates from September, with some expecting two cuts by year-end. Gold futures for Monday closed at $3,376.70 per ounce, up $13.20, with spot prices hovering around $3,382 on Tuesday morning.
In Kerala, gold prices rose ₹40 on Monday to ₹74,360 per sovereign. If the rupee weakens further today, prices are likely to increase. Silver prices rose to $37.35 per ounce.
Among industrial metals, aluminium was the only major loser on Monday. Copper rose 0.91 percent to $9,622.40 per tonne. Nickel, lead, zinc and tin posted gains, while aluminium slipped 0.27 percent to $2,558.36.
Rubber fell 0.36 percent to 164.40 cents per kg on global markets. Cocoa declined 1.58 percent to $8,102 per tonne, while coffee rose 1.53 percent. Tea fell 0.73 percent. Palm oil prices declined 1.39 percent.
Crude oil prices continued to soften, though the pace of decline eased. Brent crude settled at $68.76 per barrel on Monday, down 1 percent. Tuesday morning quotes were: Brent at $68.71, WTI at $66.23, and Murban at $71.05. Natural gas fell 0.27 percent.
The US dollar index closed Monday at 98.78 and was at 98.70 on Tuesday morning. The euro strengthened to $1.1565 and the pound to $1.3293. The yen firmed to 147.05 per dollar.
Despite dollar weakness, the rupee depreciated due to uncertainty over trade deals. The dollar rose 12 paise to settle at ₹87.66 on Monday, after hitting an intraday high of ₹87.67. Further weakness is expected today.
The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.18 per dollar, up from 7.21 at the end of last week. Markets had expected Beijing to keep the yuan weak to support exports, but recent moves suggest otherwise.
Cryptocurrencies struggled to recover, with Bitcoin falling below $115,000. Ethereum, however, climbed 6 percent to $3,695.
