After last week’s slump driven by tariff-related tensions, Indian markets are trying to open the new week with cautious optimism. Many expect Friday’s talks in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to result in an end to the war in Ukraine. If that happens, India could avoid the penalty tariffs on Russian oil, bringing significant relief to both the market and Indian exporters.
Tomorrow, retail inflation data will be released in both India and the US. In India, inflation is expected to ease slightly from June’s 2.10 percent. In the US, however, it is projected to rise to 2.8 percent, with core inflation (excluding food and fuel) estimated to climb to 3 percent. A higher reading could reduce the likelihood of a September interest rate cut.
Trade balance figures are also due this week, with exports expected to fall marginally.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 24,393.50 on Friday night. This morning, it rose to 24,472 before retreating, suggesting a flat start for Indian equities today.
European markets ended Friday on mixed notes. Defence stocks fell on expectations that the Trump–Putin meeting could pave the way for ending the Ukraine war. Munich Re dropped 7.3 percent after the reinsurer lowered its earnings forecast.
US markets closed higher on Friday. Over the week, the Dow rose 1.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.4 percent, and the Nasdaq surged 3.9 percent. Apple shares jumped 13 percent for the week.
The announcement of a 39 percent tariff on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars sent holiday gold prices to a record $3,534.10 per ounce. The market is expecting clarity on the tariff policy; without changes, gold trading could face significant disruption.
The Financial Times reported that Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay 15 percent of their revenues from sales of H20 and MI308 chips in China, respectively, to the US government. The arrangement allows them to avoid a 100 percent import tariff on these chips.
Intel shares dipped after President Trump publicly called for CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation, but recovered to close up 0.91 percent.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206.97 points (0.47 percent) to 44,175.61, the S&P 500 added 49.45 points (0.78 percent) to 6,389.45, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 207.32 points (0.98 percent) to 21,450.02.
Futures were higher this morning, with the Dow up 0.25 percent, the S&P 500 up 0.16 percent, and the Nasdaq up 0.11 percent.
Asian markets also opened higher today, with gains in Australia and South Korea. Hong Kong and Chinese markets, which had rallied in recent days, also started higher.
Tariff tensions and foreign institutional investor (FII) withdrawals dragged Indian markets down by about 1 percent on Friday, marking the sixth consecutive week of declines — the longest losing streak in five years. From their September records, the Nifty has fallen 7.3 percent and the Sensex 7.12 percent.
FIIs have withdrawn about ₹18,000 crore from Indian equities so far in August, taking out $4.5 billion (around ₹39,000 crore) in the past four weeks. For 2025 as a whole, they have pulled ₹1.1 trillion from India. Since tariff concerns intensified, foreign investors have been exiting emerging markets, including China.
All major sectors closed in the red on Friday. Realty, metals, autos, pharmaceuticals, consumer durables, healthcare, IT, banking, and financials all posted sharp losses. Reliance Industries fell 1.67 percent, bringing its one-month decline to 8.63 percent.
The Nifty dropped 232.85 points (0.95 percent) to 24,363.30, the Sensex slid 765.47 points (0.95 percent) to 79,857.79, and the Bank Nifty fell 516.25 points (0.93 percent) to 55,004.90. The Midcap 100 index lost 936.10 points (1.64 percent) to 56,002.20, while the Smallcap 100 shed 264.45 points (1.49 percent) to close at 17,428.20.
Market breadth was negative, with 1,503 shares advancing and 2,548 declining on the BSE, and 983 rising against 1,966 falling on the NSE. On the NSE, 69 shares hit 52-week highs, while 91 touched 52-week lows.
FIIs were net buyers of ₹1,932 crore in the cash market on Friday, while domestic funds bought equities worth ₹7,723.66 crore.
Momentum indicators for the Nifty remain bearish. If the index falls below the 200-day EMA of 24,200, it could find support at 24,000, and then at 23,750. Immediate supports are at 24,330 and 24,275, with resistances at 24,525 and 24,675.
Gold, which had edged higher over the weekend, fell this morning. After closing Friday at $3,399.60 an ounce, it rose to $3,406 early today before slipping to $3,370. Prices will depend on details of the US gold tariff policy. A weaker dollar on expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month could lift gold prices. Tomorrow’s US retail inflation data will be key for the Fed’s decision.
In Kerala, gold prices rose ₹560 per sovereign on Friday to a record ₹75,760, before easing ₹200 on Saturday to ₹75,560. Silver is at $38.05 an ounce.
On international commodity markets, rubber rose 0.30 percent to 167.70 cents per kilogram, cocoa dropped 1.37 percent to $8,526 a tonne, coffee surged 3.88 percent, tea fell 1.49 percent, and palm oil dipped 0.31 percent.
The dollar index closed Friday lower at 98.18 and was at 98.23 this morning. The euro eased to $1.165, the pound to $1.3442, and the Japanese yen to 147.69 per dollar. US 10-year Treasury prices edged lower, pushing yields to 4.285 percent.
A weaker dollar and active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India supported the rupee, which closed Friday 4 paise higher at 87.66 per dollar. The Chinese yuan remained steady at 7.18 per dollar.
Crude oil prices fell on Friday. Brent closed at $66.39 a barrel and eased further this morning to $66.11, while WTI was at $63.32 and Murban at $68.35. Natural gas prices dropped 2.5 percent.
Cryptocurrencies climbed again, supported by the US decision to allow pension schemes, including 401(k) plans, to invest in digital assets. Bitcoin traded above $119,250, while Ether rose over 10 percent over the weekend to surpass $4,300.
