Global markets continue to reel under mounting uncertainty triggered by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as geopolitical conflicts across various regions. Amid these concerns, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil, both of which have seen a sharp rise.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold a phone conversation soon in a bid to resolve the ongoing trade dispute.
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee begins its three-day meeting today, with the outcome scheduled for Friday morning. Analysts expect a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate.
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Department of Justice has launched a probe into allegations that the Adani Group is circumventing sanctions to import natural gas from Iran. The group has denied the report.
On Monday night, Gift Nifty closed at 24,892.50 before falling to 24,858 in early morning trade, indicating a positive opening for Indian markets today.
European indices declined on Monday following the breakdown in US-China trade negotiations and the imposition of higher tariffs on European goods. Auto stocks led the losses, falling over 2 percent.
US markets opened lower but recovered later in the session, buoyed by hopes of an upcoming Trump-Xi conversation. Concerns over the tariff war eased slightly as markets anticipated dialogue. The move to double steel and aluminium tariffs to protect US steelmakers boosted stocks such as Cleveland-Cliffs, which surged 23 percent. However, concerns remain over potential domestic steel price hikes due to the increased duties.
The Dow Jones rose 35.41 points (0.08 percent) to close at 42,305.48. The S&P 100 gained 24.25 points (0.41 percent) to settle at 5,935.94, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 128.85 points (0.67 percent) to 19,242.61.
US futures were trading lower: Dow down 0.22 percent, S&P 0.24 percent, and Nasdaq 0.25 percent.
Asian markets are in positive territory this morning. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.40 percent, Australia gained 0.75 percent, while Hong Kong remained under pressure.
Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally lower on Monday amid volatility, while midcap and smallcap stocks outperformed. The Sensex oscillated between 80,654 and 81,474, while the Nifty moved within a range of 24,526 to 24,754. Realty and public sector bank stocks witnessed strong gains. FMCG stocks also advanced, buoyed by a halving of import duties on crude edible oil. However, IT and metal stocks dragged indices lower.
Market breadth remained in favour of gains. On the BSE, 2,064 stocks advanced while 2,052 declined. On the NSE, 1,529 stocks ended higher compared to 1,402 that declined.
Notably, 68 stocks on the NSE hit 52-week highs while 38 touched new lows. As many as 109 stocks hit upper circuits and 103 stocks reached lower circuits.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹2,589.47 crore in the cash segment on Monday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹5,313.76 crore.
The Nifty once again failed to break out of the 24,500–24,800 zone. Key support levels today are expected around 24,580 and 24,440, with resistance likely near 24,760 and 24,805.
The heightened threat of trade wars and global conflicts drove investors towards safe-haven assets, lifting gold prices sharply. A weakening dollar further supported the rally. On Monday, gold rose nearly 3 percent to close at $3,382.60 per ounce. It touched $3,390 in early trade today before easing to $3,370. In Kerala, gold prices surged ₹1,120 per sovereign to ₹72,480 on Monday.
Rubber prices declined 2.78 percent in global markets to 157.50 cents per kg. Cocoa fell 2.86 percent to $9,483.30 per tonne, while coffee prices rose and tea declined.
The dollar index continued to slide, closing at 98.71 on Monday and hovering at 98.78 this morning. The euro strengthened to $1.144, while the pound rose to $1.3548. The yen appreciated to 142.66 per dollar.
US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.448 percent. The rupee gained 19 paise to close at 85.38 against the dollar on Monday. The Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.20 per dollar.
Despite increased production, crude oil prices climbed as geopolitical tensions and underwhelming supply growth supported the rally. Brent crude jumped 3 percent on Monday to close at $65.12 per barrel. In early trade today, Brent rose to $65.71, WTI to $63.15, and Murban crude to $64.78.
After a period of decline, cryptocurrencies staged a recovery on Monday. Bitcoin rose to $106,000, while Ethereum advanced to around $2,620.
