Hope returned to global markets after talks began to end the war in West Asia. However, real relief will depend on developments over the weekend. The latest is that the US has allowed two weeks for the diplomatic efforts. The European Union is set to hold discussions with Iran today. After Thursday’s spike, crude oil prices slipped on Friday morning, and gold too was down.
In derivatives trade, Gift Nifty closed at 24,757 overnight and climbed to 24,810 in early trade on Friday, indicating a slightly higher opening for the markets.
European markets declined on Thursday. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, while the Swiss National Bank cut its rate by 0.25 percent, bringing it to zero. In Switzerland, deflation has now replaced inflation. It’s worth noting that the country has previously maintained negative interest rates.
The US markets were closed on Thursday. President Donald Trump said a decision on US military intervention in the Israel-Iran war would only be taken after allowing space for the peace efforts. The US special envoy for West Asia has begun talks with Iran, while EU representatives are engaging in negotiations in Geneva.
US futures traded lower this morning. Dow Jones futures, which had dropped 0.70 percent on Thursday, trimmed losses slightly. As of now, the Dow is down 0.36 percent, S&P 0.31 percent, and Nasdaq 0.28 percent.
Asian markets moved in mixed directions. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.40 percent before slipping. Retail inflation in Japan hit a 2.5-year high, with rice prices more than doubling. This could pressure the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The Korean market gained half a percent, Hong Kong indices rose, but Chinese benchmarks declined. The People's Bank of China kept its benchmark rate unchanged.
Concerns over the West Asian conflict and economic growth kept Indian markets on edge Thursday. Despite some upward movement, the main indices closed with marginal losses. Midcap and smallcap indices dropped by nearly 2 percent. For every stock that rose, five fell in the broader market. Media, metal, IT, and public sector bank stocks were among the major losers.
The Nifty closed 18.80 points (0.08 percent) lower at 24,793.25. The Sensex declined 82.79 points (0.10 percent) to close at 81,361.87. Bank Nifty fell 251.30 points (0.45 percent) to 55,577.45. The Nifty Midcap 100 dropped 949.25 points (1.63 percent) to 57,159.95, and the Smallcap 100 fell 365.35 points (1.99 percent) to close at 18,013.10.
The broader market remained tilted towards declines. On the BSE, 921 stocks advanced while 3,065 declined. On the NSE, 516 stocks gained and 2,363 fell.
At the NSE, 35 stocks hit 52-week highs while 44 touched 52-week lows. Forty-six stocks hit upper circuits while 107 were locked in lower circuits.
Foreign investors made a net purchase of ₹1,008.43 crore in the cash market on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth ₹365.68 crore.
War-related concerns continue to dictate market direction. Nifty is moving within the 24,700–25,000 range. Only a breakout from this zone can define a clear trend. Today, support is expected at 24,745 and 24,715, with resistance at 24,850 and 24,930.
Gold prices fluctuated yesterday, rising from $3,346 to $3,384 an ounce before closing at $3,368.95. On Friday morning, prices slipped to around $3,360.
Citi Group projects gold, which has surged 30 percent this year, may fall and end the year at $3,000 per ounce. Silver is expected to cross $40 per ounce within 12 months.
In Kerala, the price of gold rose by ₹120 to ₹74,120 per sovereign. Silver eased slightly from its record level, closing at $36.32 per ounce yesterday.
In the international market, rubber dropped 0.85 percent to 163.80 cents per kg. Cocoa gained 0.05 percent to $9,617.47 per tonne, coffee rose 0.09 percent, and tea remained flat. Palm oil prices rose by 1 percent.
The US dollar slipped slightly, with the dollar index closing at 98.91 and dipping to 98.63 this morning.
In the currency market, the dollar weakened. The euro rose to $1.152 and the pound to $1.348. The Japanese yen appreciated to 145.16 against the dollar. US 10-year bond yields remained steady at 4.395 percent.
The rupee weakened further, with the dollar gaining 24 paise to close at ₹86.72—its highest in three months. China’s yuan remained steady at 7.19 per dollar.
Fears of escalation in the West Asian war drove crude prices up by nearly 3 percent on Thursday, with Brent crude hitting $78.85 per barrel. But as talks gained traction by nightfall, prices eased. A decline in US stockpiles pushed domestic prices higher.
Brent crude is down 2 percent this morning at $77.36. WTI is at $76.02 and Murban crude at $77.60. Natural gas prices have fallen by 2.5 percent.
Cryptocurrencies remained largely unchanged. Bitcoin trades above $104,500, while Ether remains below $2,520.
