Markets are entering a phase of heightened volatility and uncertainty. After closing on a bullish note last week, the Indian stock market is likely to open on a weaker footing on April 21.
The sharp decline in the US dollar, coupled with the rise of the euro and other major currencies, indicates that the US administration may have miscalculated key economic indicators. The unease is reflected in US futures, which are trending lower. In response to the falling dollar, several countries with appreciating currencies are attempting to counteract by cutting interest rates — a move that could again hamper growth and global trade.
For Indian industries, the decline of the dollar is an unexpected blow that adds to existing tariff burdens. Exporters are likely to suffer if the dollar continues its descent. However, the weakening dollar has also raised hopes that the Reserve Bank of India may cut interest rates sooner than expected.
This week, corporate earnings, currency trends, and tariff-related developments will dictate market direction.
In derivatives trading, the Gift Nifty closed at 23,900 on Thursday night, dropped to 23,791 in early trade this morning, and later recovered slightly to 23,815 — suggesting a weak opening for the Nifty today.
The IMF and G20 finance ministers' meetings are taking place in Washington this week. The IMF’s updated global growth outlook, due on Tuesday, will be its first major forecast since Trump’s tariff war intensified. While a global recession is not expected, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has warned of a significant slowdown in growth. The G20 meet will provide an opportunity for countries to voice concerns over US tariff policies.
European markets closed flat on Thursday after a weak start. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points — its third rate cut this year. In the US, markets closed mixed on Thursday. Despite repeated calls by President Donald Trump for interest rate cuts in the face of the tariff war, the US Federal Reserve has stood firm. Trump has now threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Markets have yet to react to the threat.
The Dow Jones fell 527.16 points (1.33%) to close at 39,142.23. The S&P 500 gained 7 points (0.13%) to end at 5,282.70, while the Nasdaq lost 20.71 points (0.13%) to settle at 16,286.45. US futures are trading significantly lower today, with the Dow down 0.71%, S&P 500 down 0.65%, and Nasdaq down 0.54%.
Asian markets are showing mixed trends this morning. Japan’s Nikkei is down by 1%, while South Korea’s market has seen marginal gains. The Shanghai Composite dipped slightly after China’s central bank left interest rates unchanged.
After gaining 630 points on Friday, the Sensex ended the week above the 76,000 mark. The Nifty surged 203 points to close above 23,300. BSE mid cap and small cap indices rose by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Pharma and PSU bank stocks led the rally, with gains exceeding 2%.
Though the broader market remained bullish, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to sell, offloading shares worth ₹1,790 crore on Friday. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth ₹1,839 crore.
Corporate earnings for the January–March quarter will be in focus this week. Today, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Communications, Tata Elxsi, Crisil, and Polycab will announce their results. On Tuesday, Bajaj Finance and Nestlé India will declare results, followed by Tata Consumer Products, ICICI Prudential Life, and Maruti Suzuki on Wednesday. Thursday will see earnings from Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, and JSW Steel. Major results expected on Friday include those from ICICI Bank, Wipro, and Hindustan Zinc.
Gold prices have risen sharply as the dollar continues to weaken and equity markets remain volatile. In international markets, gold gained $35 on Friday to reach $2,391 per ounce, and further rose to $2,397 on Monday morning. In India, gold surged by ₹500 to ₹71,410 per 10 grams.
Crude oil prices declined. Brent crude dropped 0.34% to $86.79 a barrel. In the forex market, the US dollar index is down by 0.32% to 105.65. The Indian rupee appreciated by 4 paise to close at 83.53 against the dollar on Friday.
