Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) touched a fresh record on Monday as optimism grew that the US takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry could unlock cheaper crude supplies and boost refining margins for Indian refiners, including Reliance.
The conglomerate’s stock climbed as much as 1.2 percent during the session to hit an all-time high of ₹1,611.8 per share, marking its biggest intraday rise since January 1. The stock later pared gains and was trading 0.3 percent higher at ₹1,599 around 9:55 am, even as the Nifty 50 slipped 0.03 percent.
RIL shares have now advanced for four consecutive sessions and were trading at about 1.7 times their 30-day average volume, according to Bloomberg data. Over the past 12 months, the stock has surged 31 percent, significantly outperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which has gained about 11 percent. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹21.6 trillion.
The rally follows a weekend military operation in Venezuela, in which US forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and brought them to the US to face charges including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. Analysts believe the move could pave the way for a restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector and a possible easing of sanctions on crude exports.
According to analysts at Jefferies, a US takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry could prove beneficial for Reliance Industries as well as ONGC. The lifting of sanctions would allow Venezuelan crude to return to global markets, enabling refiners like Reliance to buy heavy crude at a discount to Brent prices, thereby supporting gross refining margins.
India was once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s. However, imports declined sharply after 2019 due to US sanctions.
Analysts said stability in global oil prices combined with higher refinery utilisation could support RIL’s performance in the short to medium term. Improved crude availability and smoother global supply chains would help sustain refining margins, he said.
However, they cautioned investors to closely track geopolitical developments and crude price movements over the coming weeks. “At this stage, oil prices are expected to remain largely stable within the current range, and it is too early to speculate on sharp moves,” one analyst said. Any correction in RIL shares should be viewed as a buying opportunity, while long-term investors can continue to hold the stock.
Meanwhile, Jefferies noted that ONGC is yet to receive more than $500 million in unpaid dividends from its San Cristobal project in Venezuela. With the US stepping in, the brokerage believes the state-owned explorer could be better positioned to recover these dues.
