Indian equity markets closed the week ended April 3 on a cautious note, with volatility dominating trade amid rising crude oil prices, persistent foreign outflows, and geopolitical uncertainty. While domestic institutional investors offered intermittent support, the broader undertone remained weak.
Benchmark indices ended lower for the week. The BSE Sensex slipped 0.36 percent to close at 73,319.85, while the Nifty 50 declined 0.50 percent to 22,713.10. The Bank Nifty underperformed, falling 1.40 percent to 51,548.80.
Sectoral trends were mixed. IT, metals, media and realty stocks saw selective buying interest, while banking, financial services, pharma and auto stocks came under selling pressure.
The Nifty witnessed sharp swings during the week. After opening at 22,549.70, the index rose to an intraday high near 22,941, but the rally failed to sustain. Renewed selling dragged it down to a low of 22,182.60 before a mild recovery towards the close.
The weakness was largely driven by continued FII outflows, firm crude oil prices, global market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Profit booking at higher levels, along with rupee weakness and pressure in heavyweight banking stocks, further weighed on sentiment.
Markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week with a negative bias. Elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks continue to cloud visibility, while sustained FII selling could keep upside capped.
However, support from domestic institutional investors may help limit sharp downside at lower levels. Investors are likely to stay stock-specific, with broader indices moving in a range.
The Nifty remains in a short-term downtrend, trading below key moving averages. However, signs of exhaustion are emerging after recent declines.
The formation of a bullish weekly candle after five consecutive weeks of losses suggests buying interest at lower levels. The index is also in oversold territory, with the weekly RSI near 27, indicating the possibility of short-covering rallies.
Immediate support: 22,300–21,750
Key resistance: 23,000–23,300
A break below 22,300 could extend the fall towards 21,750. On the upside, a sustained move above 23,000 is needed to signal any meaningful recovery.
The Bank Nifty continues to show relative weakness, reflecting pressure in the banking segment.
Resistance: 52,000
Support: 50,000, followed by 48,000
Failure to cross 52,000 may lead to further consolidation. A break below 50,000 could trigger fresh downside, while a sustained move above 52,000 is required to improve sentiment.
The Sensex remains under pressure, trading below key resistance levels.
Resistance: 74,500
Support: 71,300
As long as the index stays below 74,500, the short-term bias is likely to remain negative. The 71,300 level may act as a crucial demand zone on the downside.
Crude oil price movements
Geopolitical developments
FII and DII flows
Currency trends, especially the rupee
The broader market trend remains weak, but oversold conditions raise the chances of intermittent pullback rallies. Any easing in global tensions or stabilisation in oil prices could trigger short-covering.
For now, caution remains the dominant strategy, with investors advised to track global cues closely and focus on selective opportunities rather than broad market exposure.
Note: Research support for this article was provided by: MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843)
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are advised to consult a qualified financial advisor and conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
