Bulls continue their run, but concerns persist; US-China deal uncertain; dollar fluctuates; crude oil declines
The Indian stock market continues to rise, remaining largely unaffected by the trends in global markets. The main driver behind this resilience is the sustained inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) into Indian equities over the past two weeks.
Despite ongoing border tensions and fears of a global trade war, Indian indices are advancing without factoring in these risks. Following a strong rally yesterday, the market is likely to maintain its momentum today.
Last weekend ended on hopes of a US-China trade agreement. However, US President Donald Trump later stated that tariffs between 10 to 50 percent could be imposed on all imports, while US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin asserted that China must take the first step towards a deal, indicating that an agreement remains distant.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed Monday night at 24,430 and rose to 24,494 this morning, suggesting a positive opening for Nifty.
European markets closed slightly higher on Monday. The US markets moved in mixed directions on Monday. Ahead of key technology earnings, the Nasdaq slipped slightly. Major indices, after starting the session higher, fell into losses before recovering in the final hour to close with modest gains.
Today, US labour market data will be released, followed by GDP figures tomorrow. This week, major companies including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft will announce their results. About 180 companies from the S&P 500, including Visa, Coca-Cola, Eli Lilly, and Berkshire Hathaway, will report earnings this week.
The impact of Trump’s tariff announcements on the economy will become clearer through these results. Most of the tariffs are set to take effect in early May, and the rush to purchase goods before that will be reflected in April’s data. Consumer confidence surveys already show that consumers are deeply worried. Analysts predict that US corporate results for both the second quarter and the full year could be disappointing.
On Monday, the Dow Jones rose by 114.09 points (0.28 percent) to close at 40,227.59. The S&P 500 index climbed 3.54 points (0.06 percent) to 5528.75, while the Nasdaq fell by 16.81 points (0.10 percent) to 17,366.13.
Despite uncertainties and concerns, the Indian market rallied sharply yesterday. Traders are aware that a prolonged India-Pakistan border conflict or a full-scale war could severely damage the markets. However, bulls are currently focused on pushing indices higher to book profits.
US treasury secretary Scott Besant's comments that a trade agreement with India would be finalised soon also boosted market sentiment.
Reliance Industries shares surged 5.07 percent yesterday to close at ₹1366.30. In July last year, it had touched ₹1608.80. Several foreign brokerages upgraded Reliance shares yesterday, with target prices — Nuvama at ₹1708, Jefferies at ₹1660, CLSA and Nomura at ₹1650.
Mahindra & Mahindra announced the acquisition of a 59 percent stake in SML Isuzu for ₹555 crore, buying shares at ₹650 each — around 40 percent below market value. An open offer will follow. SML shares fell 10 percent below ₹1600, while Mahindra shares rose 2.30 percent. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Mahindra’s position in the electric commercial vehicle market.
Apart from the IT sector, all other sectors gained yesterday. Banking, finance, realty, auto, consumer durables, oil & gas, pharma, healthcare, metal, and media stocks all moved higher.
On Monday, the Nifty closed up 289.15 points (1.20 percent) at 24,328.50, and the Sensex rose 1005.54 points (1.27 percent) to close at 80,218.37. Bank Nifty surged 768.75 points (1.41 percent) to 55,432.80. The Midcap 100 index jumped 870.05 points (1.62 percent) to 54,440.25, and the Smallcap 100 index rose 0.78 percent to close at 16,676.90.
On the BSE, the advance-decline ratio continued to favour decliners. While 1914 stocks advanced, 2091 declined. On the NSE, advancers outpaced decliners — 1532 stocks rose and 1375 fell.
Twentyfour NSE stocks hit 52-week highs, while 28 reached 52-week lows. Sixty-seven stocks hit upper circuits, while 88 hit lower circuits.
Foreign investors were net buyers again on Monday, purchasing stocks worth ₹2474.10 crore. Domestic institutions also bought ₹2817.64 crore worth of shares. Over the past nine sessions, foreign investors have pumped ₹34,974 crore into Indian equities.
The market has regained a bullish momentum. Nifty could start a rally towards the 24,550–24,850 range. Support levels today are at 24,130 and 24,065, while resistance may emerge at 24,360 and 24,430.
IndusInd Bank’s Deputy CEO Arun Khurana resigned following derivatives trading losses — the first resignation at the senior management level over the issue.
TVS Motor posted a 17 percent growth in revenue and a 67 percent jump in net profit for the fourth quarter.
UltraTech Cement reported a 14 percent rise in revenue and a 10 percent growth in net profit.
Central Bank of India’s net interest income fell by 4 percent, but net profit rose by 28 percent.
IDBI Bank’s interest income remained largely flat, but net profit surged by 26 percent.
Hexaware Technologies reported a 16.7 percent rise in revenue and a 17.2 percent growth in net profit.
RPG Life Sciences posted a 12.7 percent growth in revenue, while net profit jumped ninefold due to a one-time income of ₹109.9 crore.
Adani Green Energy saw a 21.6 percent rise in revenue and a 53.3 percent jump in net profit. Adani Total Gas reported a 3.6 percent rise in revenue and an 8.6 percent increase in profit.
Oberoi Realty’s revenue fell by 12.5 percent, and net profit dropped by 45 percent.
Fino Payments Bank posted a 45.5 percent rise in net interest income but reported a 4.8 percent decline in net profit.
Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, BPCL, Ambuja Cements, CEAT, Star Health, Trent, Vishal Mega Mart, UTI AMC, and Praj Industries are scheduled to announce their fourth-quarter results today.
Gold initially fell by 1 percent at the start of the week but rebounded as US equity markets declined. However, as stocks recovered late in the session, gold’s gains narrowed. This morning, gold prices are down again.
On Monday, gold closed at $3,344.80 per ounce and fell to $3,325 this morning.
Dollar weakness and falling stock prices lifted gold yesterday. Corporate earnings and US GDP data expected this week will impact gold movements.
In Kerala, gold fell by ₹520 yesterday to ₹71,520 per sovereign.
Internationally, rubber fell by 0.18 percent to 168.60 cents per kilogram, cocoa dropped 3.94 percent to $9033.29, while coffee rose 2.23 percent. Palm oil fell by 2.39 percent.
The dollar index fell over half a percent on Monday to close at 99.01, before rebounding slightly to 99.14 this morning.
The euro slipped to $1.139, and the pound to $1.3418. The Japanese yen strengthened to 142.40 per dollar.
The rupee strengthened sharply on Monday. During trade, the dollar fell to ₹84.96 before closing slightly higher at ₹85.03.
Cryptocurrencies continued their wild swings. Bitcoin fell below $93,000 before recovering past $95,100. Ether slipped below $1800.
