The contest between the United States and China over critical minerals is rapidly evolving into a defining geopolitical struggle of 2026, with supply chains for artificial intelligence and advanced technologies at its core.
Recent developments underline the intensity of the competition, a report in The South China Morning Post says. At the heart of Washington’s strategy is Pax Silica, a US-led framework designed to secure AI-era supply chains among allied nations.
On February 20, the US admitted India into the Pax Silica coalition. The initiative seeks to build a coalition-based ecosystem that reduces reliance on China in areas such as rare earths, battery materials, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing inputs.
The US approach rests on several pillars:
Building alliances and preferential trade frameworks
Deploying large-scale financing commitments
Expanding strategic reserves under domestic programmes
Using diplomatic leverage to redirect mineral flows
Washington has signed multiple bilateral mineral agreements and expanded its strategic stockpiles, aiming to create an alternative supply architecture to Chinese-dominated networks.
China, by contrast, has pursued a vertically integrated and ownership-driven model for years. State-backed firms operate mines, processing facilities and refining units across Africa and beyond, giving Beijing direct control over multiple stages of the value chain. Rather than relying primarily on alliances, China has focused on acquiring assets and building reserves.
China’s dominance in critical minerals remains formidable. It controls the vast majority of global refining capacity for critical minerals and accounts for an overwhelming share of rare earth permanent magnet production. Even where raw materials are mined elsewhere, much of the processing is still carried out in China.
Production data reflect this long-term strategy. China’s rare earth oxide output has expanded dramatically over the past three decades, supported by sustained investment and state-backed consolidation. When Beijing imposed export controls on selected rare earth elements last year, its prior stockpiling and overseas acquisitions helped cushion domestic industries from supply disruptions.
Chinese companies also retain dominant positions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies the bulk of the world’s cobalt. Firms linked to China control major mining assets and a significant share of output is refined within China, reinforcing its grip on battery and AI-related supply chains.
Although US-China tariff tensions eased temporarily last October, the pause is widely seen as tactical rather than permanent. The current truce, set to expire in November, has triggered accelerated deal-making on both sides.
For Washington, the challenge lies in translating Pax Silica’s frameworks into operational projects within tight timelines, despite the long gestation periods typical of mining and processing investments.
For Beijing, the suspension of certain export controls offers a window to deepen acquisitions, especially in minerals critical for AI infrastructure such as cobalt, lithium and rare earths.
The mineral rivalry is inseparable from the broader technology contest between the world’s two largest economies. Advanced computing, data centres and AI hardware depend on secure access to strategic materials. From upstream mining to downstream applications, the side that successfully builds a complete and resilient ecosystem could shape the next technological era.
Whether the global economy fragments into competing blocs — a US-led coalition under Pax Silica versus a more self-sufficient Chinese model — remains uncertain. What is clear is that critical minerals have become the new frontline in the China-US strategic rivalry, with lasting implications for trade, technology and global power balances.
