In a development that could ease inflationary pressures and bolster agricultural prospects, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast an “above normal” southwest monsoon for 2025. Rainfall during the June–September period is expected to be around 105 percent of the long period average (LPA), which stands at 87 cm.
/The IMD’s projections align with recent estimates by private forecaster Skymet, which last week pegged monsoon rainfall this year at 103 percent of the LPA — a level considered ‘normal’ under meteorological standards. The IMD defines rainfall between 96–104 percent of the LPA as normal, while anything above that falls into the “above normal” category.
A combination of favourable climatic conditions is seen aiding this year’s rainfall. Key among them is the neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), expected to persist through the monsoon onset in June. In addition, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and lower-than-average snow cover in the northern hemisphere from January to March are likely to support strong monsoon activity.
Last year’s southwest monsoon had ended on a positive note, registering 8 percent excess rainfall — the highest in three years — with a total seasonal precipitation of 935 mm, well above the normal 870 mm.
A robust monsoon in 2025 could significantly benefit kharif crop sowing, ensure adequate soil moisture for the rabi season, and help replenish the country’s depleting reservoirs, many of which are currently running low.
